2020년 미얀마 총선 분석과 정치지형의 변화: 여당의 승리와 군부의 견제
An Analysis on the 2020 General Elections and Change of Political Ground in Myanmar: Landslide Victory of the Ruling Party and Hold the Ring of the Tatamadaw
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이 글의 목적은 2020년 11월 8일 실시된 미얀마 총선을 분석함으로써 현 정부에 대한 국민의 지지와 정치지형의 현황을 중점적으로 파악하고, 차기 정부에서 기대되는 정치발전을 비롯한 정치질서의 미래를 전망하는 것이다. 이번 총선은 여카잉주와 샨주 일부 지역의 치안 불안, 전례에 없던 코로나19 사태로 인한 환경적 제약이 따랐다. 대도시에서 이동제한(lockdown)이 실시되면서 원활한 선거유세가 불가능했으므로 유권자들은 각 당의 정강정책이나 주요 공약을 확인할 수 없었다. 2010년 총선부터 샨주 일부 지역에서 총선이 실시되지 않던 관례는 이번 총선에서 여카잉주로 확대됨에 따라 정부의 국정 수행 역량에 대한 비판이 제기되었다. 군부가 총선 일주일 전 연방선거위원회(UEC)의 업무 추진 방식과 독립성을 엄중 경고하자 유권자는 NLD를 적극 지지했다. 그 결과 NLD는 전체 의석(1,117석)의 82.4%를 획득하는 한편, 친군부 정당인 USDP는 71석을 획득하는데 그쳤다. NLD는 지난 총선에 이어 샨주와 여카잉주 등 소수종족 지역이 다수 거주하는 지역에서 1당이 되지 못함에 따라 당 차원의 소수종족 정책에 대한 쇄신이 필요하다. 지난 5년간 정부의 업적은 국민의 지지를 받기에는 부족한 면이 있으나 국가 제도로서 국가고문과 대통령에 대한 지지가 높아진 것과 정당 지지도를 근거로 할 때 미얀마의 정당정치는 여전히 인물 중심으로 전개되고 있음이 확인된다. 총선 이후에도 아웅산수찌 국가고문 중심으로 차기 내각 인선이 추진되고 있으므로 차기 정부에서도 정치 질서는 그를 중심으로 살펴보는 것이 마땅하다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze Myanmar's general elections held on November 8, 2020 to focus on national support for the current government and the political landscape. Furthermore it predicts the future of the political order, including the expected political development of the next government. The general elections were followed by security concerns and environmental restrictions such as Arakan and Shan states and an unprecedented Corona 19 virus. As the lockout was enforced in large cities, it was impossible to campaign smoothly, so voters could not confirm each party's platform policy or major pledges. The precedent of not holding general elections in some regions of Shan State since the 2010 general elections has led to criticism of the government's ability to carry out state affairs as it has expanded to Arakan State. Voters actively supported the NLD when the Commander-in-Chief of military sternly warned about the poor performance of the UEC's work and its independence a week before the general elections. As a result, the NLD won 82.4% of the total (1,117 seats), while the pro-military USDP won only 71 seats. Following the last general elections, the NLD is not dominate party in areas where many ethnic minority living areas such as Shan State and Arakan State, so a reform of the party's minority policy is severely needed. The achievements of the government over the past five years are insufficient to populate a national support. But Myanmar's party politics are still character-driven, based on the state institution as state counsellor and the president and party preference. Since the appointment of the next Cabinet is being pursued by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a national counsellor, even after the general elections, it is appropriate for the next administration to look at the political order around her.
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