2015년 미얀마 총선과 정치변동:선거의 민주화와 불확실한 미래
An Analysis on the 2015 General Elections and Political Change in Myanmar:Electoral Democratization and Uncertain Future
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이 글의 목적은 2015년 11월 실시된 미얀마 총선과정과 결과를 분석하고, 향후 미얀마 정치발전의 양상을 전망하는 것이다. 이번 선거는 1990년 이래 25년 만의 자유총선이자 2011년 출범한 신정부의 개혁을 마무리하는 정치 행사였다는데 그 의미가 있다. 예상대로 아웅산수찌가 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi 이끄는 the National League for Democracy가 선출 의석의 76.7%를 차지하여 승리했다. NLD 승리의 배경은 NLD의 정강정책이 아니라 아웅산수찌의 개인적 인기와 군부통치에 대한 국민적 반감이었다. 따라서 차기 정부에서 기대되고 요구되는 정치적 과제는 산재한다. 우선 이번 선거에서도 나타났듯이 미얀마 국가구조와 정치상황은 현행 선거제도와 맞지 않다. 특히 소수종족을 배려하는 차원에서 비례대표제 도입과 같은 선거개혁이 필요하다. 또한 NLD는 아웅산수찌 중심의 사당(私黨)에 가깝기 때문에 당내 민주화를 이룩해야 할 것이다. 이와 함께 NLD의 허약한 역량을 강화하는 것도 중요한 과제일 것이다. 2016년 3월 말 미얀마는 거의 70년 만에 문민정부를 회복한다. 그러나 군부가 정치질서의 주역이었고, 현재까지도 군부를 대체할 세력이 없다는 측면에서 당분간 군부의 정치적 영향력은 유효할 것이다. 이런 의미에서 미얀마의 민주주의는 신생 민주주의국가에서 나타나는 최소한의 민주주의는 유지할 수 있겠으나 실질적으로는 권위주의적 형태가 혼합되는 체제로 나아갈 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the process and results of Myanmar’s elections carried out in November 2015 and forecast the aspects of Myanmar’s future political development. This elections was meaningful as it was the first free elections in 25 years since 1990 and a political event that completed the reform led by the new government established in 2011. As expected, the National League for Democracy, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, triumphed declaring 76.7% of the parliamentary seats. NLD’s victory did not stem from its platform policies but rather from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s personal popularity and the people’s antagonism toward the military. Therefore, the political imperatives anticipated and demanded by the newly elected government were scattered. First of all, Myanmar’s state structure and political situation is not incorporated into the current election system, which was the case for the recent elections. Election reform measures such as the proportional representation system must be implemented especially in consideration of the ethnic tribes. Furthermore, the NLD must achieve democratization within the party as it currently stands as a Daw Aung San Suu Kyi centered sanctuary. In addition, it will be important for the NLD to strengthen its feeble capacity. At the end of March 2016, Myanmar recuperated its civilian-led government in almost 70 years. The military, however, stood at the heart of the political order and still continues to wield its political influence as no force is capable of replacing the military. As a result, Myanmar’s democracy will maintain basic democratic characteristics like that of a newborn democratic nation but will substantially be a hybrid regime mixed with authoritarian traits.
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