미얀마 민주화 과정의 역설: 느슨한 권위주의 체제에서 선거 권위주의로
Paradox of the Democratization in Myanmar: From the Loosened Authoritarianism to Electoral Authoritarianism
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초록
2011년 이후 점진적으로 민주화의 과정을 밟아가던 미얀마는 2021년 군부 쿠데타 이후 다시금 군부 권위주의로 회귀하였다. 이후 시민불복종 운동과 민주화 세력의 거센 저항이 있어왔지만 오히려 군부는 2023년 8월 총선이 있을 때까지 권력을 넘겨주지 않을 강경한 입장을 보이고 있다. 이 연구는 미얀마 정치 체제에 대한 기존의 논의를 검토하고, 2021년 쿠데타 이후 정치적 상황을 살펴봄으로써 향후 미얀마가 어떠한 정치적 체제의 특성을 가질지 분석하고자 한다. 군부의 주장에 따르면 총선이 치러질 예정이기 때문에 권위주의 정권 하에서의 선거가 어떤 의미를 가질지에 대한 분석 역시 필요하다. 따라서 이 논문은 정치 제도적 관점에서 미얀마 쿠데타 이후의 동학을 풀어보고자 한다. 이 연구에서는 2011년부터 2020년까지 미얀마의 체제를 느슨한 형태의 권위주의로 정의하고자 한다. 지난 10여년간의 민주화 과정은 군부 권위주의 붕괴와 시민 혁명이 만들어낸 결과라기 보다는 군부가 주도한 체제 이행 계획의 결과물이라고 정의하고자 한다. 따라서 민주적 절차를 통해 민간 정부가 수립되었고, 시민권 및 자유권 등 몇몇 긍정적 발전이 있었지만, 이러한 체제 이행을 가능하게끔 만든 근간을 살펴보면 변화의 방향성이 민주주의 체제라는 방향으로 갔다고 보기만은 어려울 것이다. 그런 측면에서 최근 10여 년간의 민주화의 과정은 단순히 민주주의로의 이행이라기 보다는 폐쇄적 군부 권위주의에서 미얀마 역사상 느슨했던 권위주의 통치로의 이행 즉, 권위주의적 유산이 민주주의적 가치와 함께 공존했던 것으로 볼 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 민주화 이행 과정의 불명확한 성격은 다시금 선거 권위주의라는 형태로 창출되지 않을까 평가해본다.
Abstract
Myanmar has been undergoing a gradual democratization process since 2011. However, after the 2020 general election, which had been expected to deepen the democratization process, the country fell into the military's hands after the military coup in February 2021. Amid civilian protests and Civil Disobedience Movements(CDM), Tatmadaw announced the general election plan in August 2023. This research aims to analyze the characteristics of the political system in Myanmar by examining the existing literature on the political system and the political situation after the coup in 2021. In order to understand the contemporary political situation in Myanmar, the research studies the characteristics of the political system in Myanmar and the reasons for the military coup from the institutional perspective. The paper unfolds in two ways: first, it attempts to provide the rationale for the recent coup from dynamics revolving around the political institutions. Secondly, the research draws the literature on electoral authoritarianism to situate the political changes in the broader regime typology discussion. This study assumes that the Myanmar regime from 2011 to 2020 as a loosened form of authoritarianism. The research defines the democratization process over the past decade as a result of the military-led system implementation plan rather than the collapse of military authoritarianism by mass protests. Since the general election is scheduled to be held according to the military's plan, it is also necessary to analyze what the election will mean under an authoritarian regime. Tatmadaw already announced the change in the electoral system from the First Past The Post (FPTP) to Proportional Representation (PR). This can be considered as a prelude for Tatmadaw to mobilize the election as the instrument of the authoritarian rule rather than democratizing forces. In this regard, the democratization process over the past decade can be considered a transition from closed military authoritarianism to a loosened authoritarian rule rather than a transition to democracy. The ambiguous nature of this process of democratization will be created again in the form of electoral authoritarianism.
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