전시억제이론(Intra-War Deterrence theory)과 한반도 적용
Intra-War Deterrence Theory and its Application for Korean Peninsular
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참고문헌
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초록
본고는 북한의 핵사용 위협이 고조되고 있는 한반도 상황에서 억제이론의 적용을 보완하기 위한 이론적 접근을 시도하였다. 전통적인 억제이론은 전쟁 이전에 핵사용 가능성을 억제하여 핵전으로의 발전을 차단하는 데 초점이 맞추어져있으나, 전시 핵사용의 위험에 대해서는 충분한 논의가 부족한 것으로 평가될 수 있다. 중･소규모 핵전력을 보유한 국가들의 등장과 핵전력의 다종화･다양화 추세는 전시 핵사용을 통한 제한적인 목표 달성을 추구하는 교리적 전환이 발생하고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 억제이론과 전시억제이론을 비교하여 설명하였으며, 한반도에서 제한전의 가능성을 고찰하였다.
Abstract
This study suggests theoretical approaches that give a supplement explanation about the application of deterrence theory to the Korean Peninsula situation. The traditional deterrence theory focuses on preventing the escalation of nuclear war by preventing nuclear use before a war. However, there has been insufficient discussions on the risk of nuclear use during a war. Countries with small- and medium-sized nuclear power are emerging, and nuclear power is proliferating. It calls for a doctrinal shift suitable for achieving limited goals through nuclear use during a war. In this study, we compare the traditional deterrence theory with the intra-war deterrence theory and present the possibility of limited war on the Korean Peninsula.
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