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억제와 위기 안정에 대한 이론적 고찰 : 성공 조건과 실패 요인을 중심으로

A Theoretical Study on Deterrence and Crisis Stability

이만석
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2022.07|국방정책연구 (The Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy Studies)|제38권 제2호|pp. 7-41|DOI 10.22883/jdps.2022.38.2.001

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참고문헌

키워드

안정성북한North Korea억제StabilityDeterrenceNuclear Threat핵 위협위기 안정위기 고조Crisis StabilityCrisis Escalation

초록

억제는 무력사용을 통해 현상을 변경하려는 도전자를 단념시키고 국제 체제의 안정성을 유지하는 핵심 기제이다. 특히, 억제는 북한의 핵 보유로 인해 남북한 간 상대적 군사력의 균형이 변하고 있는 오늘날 한반도 안정에 중요하다. 앞으로 군사력이 강해진 북한은 현상에 만족하지 않고 한국에 더 큰 양보를 요구할 수 있으며, 한국이 이에 동의하지 않는다면 무력사용을 통한 이익의 조정도 시도할 수 있기 때문이다. 이러한 배경에서 이 논문은 억제와 위기 안정의 관계를 이론적으로 논의하였고, 이를 한반도 상황에 적용하여 함의를 도출하였다. 결론으로 이 논문은 한국 안보를 달성하고자 하는 군사전략가들의 핵심과제가 우발적 위기고조 상황에서 억제를 효과적으로 시행하여 안정을 유지하는 것임을 제시한다.

Abstract

Deterrence is a key mechanism for maintaining an international system's crisis stability by discouraging challengers from changing the status quo through the use of force. It is particularly crucial for maintaining the stability of the Korean Peninsula today, when the relative balance of military power between the two Koreas is shifting as a result of North Korea's nuclear development. In the future, North Korea, which has grown in military power, may demand greater concessions from South Korea if it is not satisfied with the status quo. If South Korea does not agree, the North may use force to adjust the distribution of interests. Against this backdrop, this paper theoretically discussed the relationship between deterrence and crisis stability, and then applied this to the Korean Peninsula situation to draw implications. Finally, this paper contends that the primary responsibility of South Korean military strategists is to maintain stability by effectively implementing deterrence in the event of an unintentional crisis.

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