미국의 파리협정 가입 및 탈퇴 요인 분석 : 오바마 행정부와 트럼프 행정부 사례
An Analysis of U.S. Joining and Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change : Cases of the Obama and Trump Administrations
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이 논문의 목적은 미국의 오바마 행정부가 유엔 기후변화에 관한 파리협정에 가입한 요인과 트럼프 행정부가 파리협정에서 탈퇴한 요인을 이론적 시각에서 설명하는 것이다. 이를 위해 활용하는 이론적 분석 틀은 외교정책이념 접근법과 국제협력에서의 절대적 이득 및 상대적 이득 요인 분석이다. 분석의 결과로서 이 논문은 오바마 행정부와 트럼프 행정부의 외교정책이념이 국제협력에서 각각 절대적 이득 또는 상대적 이득의 중시 여부를 결정하고 그에 따라 파리협정에 가입하거나 탈퇴하는 결과를 낳았다고 분석한다. 즉 오바마 행정부는 환경 및 경제 외교정책에 있어서는 자유주의적 국제주의 이념을 추구하는 경향을 보였다. 자유주의적 국제주의 이념은 글로벌 기후변화 이슈에서 중국과의 협력을 권고하고 파리협정과 관련하여 미국이 얻게 될 절대적 이득을 중시하도록 하여 오바마 행정부가 파리협정에 가입하는 결과를 낳았다. 반면에 트럼프 행정부는 국제관계를 제로섬(zero-sum)적인 경쟁 관계로 간주하고 국제협력에서 상대적 이득 요인을 우선시하는 경제적 민족주의 외교정책이념을 지향하였다. 따라서 트럼프 행정부는 미국의 시장을 보호하고 경제력을 증진하는 것을 최우선 과제로 설정하고 글로벌 환경협력에서도 상대적 이득 요인을 중시하였다. 그리하여 파리협정이 중국이나 인도 등과 비교해서 미국에 상대적인 경제적 손실을 초래할 것을 예상하였기 때문에 파리협정에서 탈퇴하는 결정을 내린 것으로 분석된다.
Abstract
This paper aims to explain factors of the U.S. Obama administration's accession to the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Trump administration's withdrawal from it from a theoretical perspective. The Obama administration showed a tendency to pursue liberal internationalism in its foreign environmental and economic policy. The liberal internationalist ideology prescribed cooperation with China on global climate change issues and made the U.S. to focus on the absolute gains from multilateral cooperation through the Paris Agreement. As a result, the Obama administration decided to accede to the Agreement. The Trump administration pursued a foreign policy ideology of economic nationalism. Based on such an ideology, it placed a greater priority on protecting the US market and enhancing its economic power and thus put a relative gain factor first in global environmental cooperation. As a result, the Trump administration made the decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement because environmental cooperation through it would expectedly bring relative economic losses to the U.S. comparing China, India, and other competing countries.
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