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한국의 소득주도 성장: 여건 분석 및 정책적 논의

Income-led Growth for Korea: Conditions and Policy Discussions

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초록

본 논문은 1980년대 이후 기능적 소득분배의 변화가 거시경제적 성과에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 분석함으로써, 소득주도 성장의 가능성을 검토하였다. 첫째, 노동소득분배율의 변화는 주로 소비를 통해 총수요에 영향을 주고 있다. 둘째, 공급측면, 특히 생산성의 변화는 수요측면과 완전히 분리되지 않는다. 노동소득분배율의 하락이 소비에 부정적인 영향을 주었으며, 그로 인한 총수요 위축이 생산성 증가세의 둔화에도 적지 않게 기여하고 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 자본심화의 정도가 한계에 도달하고 인구의 정체와 감소가 예정되어 있는 상황에서 향후의 성장전략에 관하여 의미 있는 시사점을 던져준다.

Abstract

We investigated whether changes in functional income distribution have some consequences for macroeconomic performance in Korea since 1980s. The labor income share has affected aggregate demand mainly through consumption channel. Also, we found that movements in productivity on supply-side are not clearly separated with demand conditions. The falling labor share has negative effects on the aggregate demand, and expenditure shortage has partly contributed to productivity slowdown. The results give a meaningful hint on the possibility of income-led growth for the Korean economy facing population decline in the near future as well as limited capital deepening.

참고문헌 (60)

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