신기후체제 이행을 위한 기후금융 역할 분석
Analysis on the Role of Climate Finance to Enforce the Post-2020 Climate Change Agreement
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초록
파리협정이 발효됨에 따라 전 세계적으로 신기후체제에 대한 대응이 계획단계에서 이행단계로 전환되고 있으며 이로 인한 기후금융에 대한 수요가 지속적으로 커질 것으로 예상된다. 이미 주요 선진국들은 기후변화대응을 새로운 성장기회로 간주하고, 다양한 방식의 개입을 통해 기후금융(climate finance)을 동원(mobilizing)하고 그 규모를 확대(scale-up)하고자 노력하고 있다. 그러나 국내에서는 아직 공공 기후금융의 조성이 부족하고, 민간부문의 기후금융 참여도 미흡한 실정이다. 이는 국가주도로 추진되어온 녹색성장 및 자원외교의 성과부진, 주요 당사국의 단기적 정책 변화를 둘러싼 불확실성 등이 사회적 공감대 형성에 걸림돌이 되는 것으로 보인다. 그러나 합리적으로 잘 설계된 환경규제(well-designed environmental regulation)는 시장의 성숙을 촉진하고 기업의 경쟁력을 강화시킬 수 있다. 그러한 인식을 바탕으로, 본 연구는 OECD 및 BRIICS국가를 대상으로 국민총생산, 온실가스 배출량, 재정수지 사이의 상관관계를 분석한 뒤, 향후 파리협정 이행을 위해 요구되는 국가별 기후금융 규모를 파악할 수 있는 하향식(top-down) 접근법을 제안하였다. 또한 글로벌 시장에서 관측되는 양상을 참조하여, 공공 기후금융의 유인성 수준이 높을수록 보다 큰 규모의 민간 기후금융을 조성할 수 있음을 살펴보았다.
Abstract
This paper presents the necessity of having sufficient finances to implement measures contained within Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs). Based on a dynamic model to capture the link between emissions and government budget balance, our analysis estimates the cost associated with implementing emission-reducing policy. It also measures the gap between what is likely to be funded through existing resources, and what needs to be supplemented through climate finance. For that purpose, an international comparison analysis has been conducted to quantify public climate finance needs for each country. Using panel data for 40 countries over the period of 1998.2012, the empirical results show that economic growth and commensurate greenhouse gas emissions generate budgetary surpluses, and that these surpluses must be offset by public climate finance if countries are to reduce emissions commensurate with their NDCs. It further suggests that this is particularly a challenge for developing countries(notably, the BRIICS). The approach of this paper provides a method for determining the actual amount of public finance required to offset the budgetary shortfall from the climate finance pledged under the Paris Agreement. It is imperative to quantify the extent to which each of the developing countries needs to receive international financial support.
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