소득주도성장: 이론적 가능성과 정책적 함의
Income-led Growth: Theoretical Potentials and Policy Implications
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이 글은 최근 대안적 모델로 부각되고 있는 소득주도성장론(income-led growth)의 기본원리와 관련쟁점을 이론, 실증, 정책의 세 가지 각도에서 소개하고 검토한다. 소득주도성장론은 소득분배를 부차화하는 기존의 경제모델을 비판하고 소득 형평성이 경제 성장과 경제 안정성에 긴요하다는 것을 보여주고자 하는 야심찬 프로젝트다. 그러나 소득주도성장론이 대안적인 모델로 자리 잡기 위해서는 이론적 정교화 및 실증기법의 개선뿐만 아니라, 기능별 소득분배, 개인별 소득분배와 재분배를 포괄하는 일관된 분석 모델을 만들어낼 필요가 있다. 이런 이론적 과제를 고려하면서 이 글은 소득주도성장론의 정책원리와 배치 문제를 개략적으로 살펴본다. 소득분배 개선의 경제성, 소득분배의 다면성, 소득분배의 정치학이라는 세 가지 핵심 정책원리 기초하여, 소득 플로어(소득 최저선income floor)와 소득 상한선을 구축하고, 그 안에서 노동생산성-노동소득 간의 연계를 강화하는 것이 소득주도성장론 정책의 근간이다. 동시에 이를 가능케 하는 거시경제적 정책조건도 만들어져야 한다.
Abstract
This paper examines the model of income-led growth (ILG) which has attracted much attention as a possible alternative model in the post-crisis period, with a focus on theory, empirical evidence and policies. ILG has contributed to bringing income distribution into economic policy decisions, particularly by showing that the falling labour income share could reduce the level and stability of economic growth. However, there are a number of theoretical and empirical loopholes which need to be filled in order to make ILG widely acceptable to economics and policy makers and also to develop its full-fledged policy strategy. In this respect, it is particularly important for the ILG model to integrate various dimensions of income distribution into theory and empirical models. Considering these constraints, this paper attempts to outline policy principles and a set of concrete policies which could materialize ILG.
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