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의사결정자의 평균고정 휴리스틱이 공급사슬에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Decision Maker’s Mean Anchoring Heuristic on the Supply Chain

문성암|김이석|석순복|박재향
한국로지스틱스학회 (Korea Logistics Society)|2012.03|로지스틱스연구 (Korean Journal of Logistics)|제20권 제1호|pp. 72-88|DOI 10.15735/kls.2012.20.1.005

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키워드

휴리스틱Heuristic공급사슬관리Supply Chain ManagementBOM(Behavioral Operations Management)뉴스벤더 모델맥주배송 게임Newsvendor problemBeer Distribution gameBOM(Behavioral Operations Management
주제분류경영학

초록

본 연구는 개인의 휴리스틱이 공급사슬에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 실험과 시뮬레이션을 통해 검증하였다. 우선 뉴스벤더 실험을 통해 개인의 주문량 의사결정시 어떠한 휴리스틱이 발생하는지 파악하였다. 그리고 파악된 휴리스틱을 시뮬레이션 모델에 반영하여 공급사슬에서의 영향 정도를 파악하였다. 연구 시작 전 다른 휴리스틱 유형, 예를 들면 수요추종이나 도박사의 오류 등도 가정하였으나 실험 데이터 분석 결과 피실험자 대부분이 수요 상황에 상관없이 평균에 고착되는 휴리스틱을 보였다. 이렇게 도출된 평균고정 휴리스틱이 다단계 공급사슬에 미치는 영향을 확인하기 위해 스터만(Sterman, 2000)의 맥주배송 게임 모델의 기본 인과구조를 그대로 활용하여 시뮬레이션을 모델링하였다. 기본모델과 평균고정 휴리스틱을 적용한 모델을 비교분석한 결과 평균고정 휴리스틱이 공급사슬에서 단계별 주문량 변동폭을 줄여 채찍효과(Bullwhip Effect)가 줄었으며, 일반수요에서는 매우 합리적인 모델로 확인되었다. 하지만 계절수요와 같이 주기별 수요평균의 변동이 큰 상황에서는 신속히 대응하지 못해 재고유지비용과 재고부족비용을 많이 초래하였다. 본 연구는 공급사슬 성과라는 거시적 변수와 개인의 의사결정이라는 비교적 미시적 변수를 동시에 적용하여 분석하였다는 점에서 기존 연구와 차별성을 보인다.

Abstract

The purposes of this thesis were to find out the effects of the decision maker's mean anchoring heuristic on the supply chain. We had an newsvendor experiment to retrieve decision maker's ordering patterns. We defined three types of ordering behavior depending on heuristic with formula and six demand types, and classified them. As a result, almost subjects used mean anchoring heuristic. We designed the basic and M type supply chain simulation using causal structure of Beer Distribution Game in Sterman(2000). Basic model is the same as the casual structure and M type model is applied the formula of mean anchoring heuristic. The simulation results are as follows : If unit stock keeping cost and unit stock-out cost are the same, M type model has cost 1375 times less than the basic model in normal distribution demand and basic model always shows the better performance in seasonal demand. We also found out that M type decision maker's conservativeness probably make the bullwhip effect of the supply chain reduced. This study shows the difference from other studies in that we analyzed the effect of the individual factor on the supply chain using experiment and simulation consequently.

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