연속형 뉴스벤더 모델에서의 휴리스틱에 관한 실험 연구
Heuristics Experiment in the Continuous Newsvendor Model
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조회
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다운로드
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참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 연속되는 뉴스벤더 모델에서 주문량을 결정할 때, 수요정보의 사전 인지, 수요의 불확실성 정도, 경험의 축적 등 다양한 조건에서 활용되는 휴리스틱의 유형을 실험으로 실증 분석했다. 실험결과 수요에 대한 분포정보를 알고 있는 상황에서는 평균고정 휴리스틱의 활용이 높고, 수요에대한 분포정보를 모르는 상황에서는 수요추종 휴리스틱의 활용이 높았다. 또한 수요의 불확실성에따라 다른 휴리스틱이 활용되지는 않았다. 한편 경험의 축적에 따라 평균고정 휴리스틱의 활용은증가하는 반면 수요추종 휴리스틱의 활용은 감소하였다.
Abstract
This study examined heuristic behavior of orders in the continuous newsvendor model with various conditions such as awareness of demand distribution, the degree of demand uncertainty and learning experience. Online experiment was carried to obtain the behavioral result on demand forecasting. From the analysis on the experimental data, we confirm that mean anchoring heuristic was more likely to be used when decision-makers had known the demand distribution. While those with no demand information was prone to use demand chasing heuristic. In addition, other heuristics were not likely to be used depend on the demand uncertainty. Meanwhile we confirmed that the mean anchoring heuristic increased as the experience was accumulated however the demand chasing heuristic decreased as the experience was accumulated.
참고문헌 (16)
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