연속 뉴스벤더 모델에서 주문량 결정의 합리성에 미치는 영향 요인에 관한 연구 - 수요정보의 제공, 수요의 불확실성, 학습을 중심으로 -
A Study on the Effects of Ordering Rationality in the Continuous Newsvendor Model : Focused on the Demand Information, Demand Uncertainty and Learning
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초록
본 연구는 수요정보의 제공, 수요의 불확실성, 학습이 주문량 결정의 합리성에 어떤영향을 미치는지에 대해 살펴봤다. 피실험자들은 수요분포 정보가 있어 최적주문량을알 수 있음에도 불구하고, 제한된 합리성을 바탕으로 주문량을 결정했다. 또한, 수요의불확실성이 주문량 결정의 합리성을 낮추고, 가수요 현상을 발생시킴을 확인했다. 마지막으로 학습은 주문량 결정의 합리성을 높일 수 있는 방법이 될 수 있다. 수요정보의제공, 수요의 불확실성, 학습에 관련한 내용들은 기존 실험의 연장선상에 있는 결과를보여 본 연구의 신뢰성을 높여주었다. 한편, 수요의 불확실성이 낮은 경우에는 학습효과가 나타나지만 불확실성이 높은 경우에는 역 학습효과가 나타난다는 것을 확인할수 있었다. 본 연구는 수요예측에 관한 행태적 특징을 제시함으로써 재고관리나 수요예측 분야의 성과혁신을 위한 기초 연구를 수행했다는 점에서 의의가 있다.
Abstract
This study examined the effects of awareness of demand distribution, demand uncertainty and learning experience on the ordering rationality in the continuous newsvendor model. Although subjects could know optimal order quantity with demand distribution,but they placed orders based on bounded rationality. Also we confirmed that demand uncertainty lowered ordering rationality and occurred fictitious demand phenomenon. Learning order decision can improve ordering rationality. This study is reliable because of the same results as the existing experiments regarding awareness of demand distribution,demand uncertainty and learning experience. We confirmed that learning effect appeared in case that the demand uncertainty is low while inverse learning effect appeared in case that the demand uncertainty is high. This study is of deep significance that it is the basic research for performance innovation of inventory management or demand forecast by presenting behavior features about demand forecast.
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