A Korea-EU Free Trade Agreement and Analysis of its Economic Effects using a Dynamic CGE Model
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초록
본 연구에서는 동태CGE모형을 이용하여 한·EU FTA의 경제적 영향을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 기존의 한·EU FTA의 경제적 영향을 분석한 연구들이 주로 정태CGE모형을 이용하였기 때문에 한·EU FTA 결과 시행될 것으로 예상되는 무역자유화 조치가 실제 일시에 이루어지지 않으며, 또한 그 영향도 일시에 나타나는 것이 아니라는 사실을 반영할 수 없었는데 본 연구에서는 이러한 단점을 극복하였다. 뿐만 아니라 한·EU FTA로 인한 점차적인 관세인하와 해외직접투자의 증가에 따른 효과도 포함하여 단기에서 중·장기에 걸쳐 나타날 수 있는 효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과를 보면 한·EU FTA로 인해 우리나라 실질GDP는 FTA 발효 예상 시기부터 증가하기 시작하여 2021년까지 2.34% 증가할 것으로 전망되며, 후생수준은 141억 달러 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 우리나라 수출은 꾸준히 증가하지만, 수입의 증가가 더 빨라 무역수지 적자가 누적되면서 2017년에 최대 70억 달러에 이른 후, 다시 감소하기 시작하여 2021년에 31억 달러의 추가 무역수지가 발생할 것으로 전망된다. 본 연구에서 다룬 16개 산업 중 농수산업과 기타운송기기, 기타제조업을 제외한 모든 산업의 국내생산이 증가할 것으로 전망되는데, 이러한 국내생산의 증가는 국내 투자는 물론 해외투자의 증가에 의한 자본축적에 의해 가능할 것으로 전망된다.
Abstract
The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential economic effects of a Korea-EU FTA using a recursively dynamic CGE model in order to incorporate capital accumulation effects and different timing of policy implementations related to the FTA, which were impossible to consider in some static CGE models used for the analysis of economic impact of a Korea-EU FTA up to now. The simulation results show that Korea is to gain an additional increase in real GDP of 2.34% and welfare of $14.1 billion in 2021. As Korea's import volumes rise by a larger extent than its export volumes do, Korea is to run trade deficits over the period 2008-2021, with its peak of $7 billion in 2017 when the assumed trade liberalization of policy scenarios for a Korea-EU FTA is fully implemented. With the exception of a few sectors, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries, domestic production of all other industries of Korea rises. The increased output is made possible, in part, by increased capital stock, which is funded by foreign investors in terms of increased foreign equity. Korea-EU FTA is expected to lead to an increase in foreign investment and capital stocks of, in particular, Korea. The rise in foreign ownership of domestic assets in Korea is driven by the opening-up of domestic markets to foreign investment as a result of the Korea-EU FTA.
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