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아시아의 정치체제와 경제성장: 비선형적 관계와 간접적 영향

Political Regimes and Economic Growth in Asia: The Non-Linear Relationship and Indirect Impact

우준희|이대진
세종연구소 (The Sejong Institute)|2017.02|국가전략 (National Strategy)|제23권 제1호|pp. 107-132|DOI 10.35390/sejong.23.1.201703.005

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참고문헌

키워드

민주주의아시아AsiaDemocracy경제성장Economic Growth정치체제Political Regime준민주주의Partial Democracy
주제분류정치외교학

초록

민주주의는 독재체제보다 더 나은 경제적 성과를 가져오는가? 이 연구는 아시아 18개 국가들을 대상으로 1960년부터 2012년까지의 경제성장에 대한 패널(panel) 데이터를 구축하고, 이를 통해 정치체제가 경제성장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 경험적으로 분석하였다. 정교한 회귀분석 기법을 적용하여 얻은 결론은 첫째, 민주주의, 준민주주의, 독재로 범주화하여 살펴본 세 가지 정치체제 중에서 준민주주의가 민주주의나 독재보다 친경제성장적인 동력으로 작동하였다는 것이고 둘째, 이러한 경제발전 과정에서 가장 성장 친화적인 정부정책은 투자를 증대시키는 것으로 나타났다는 점이다.

Abstract

Is democracy good for economic growth? Or does dictatorship provide better economic performance than democracy? To test the effect of political regimes on economic growth, we specify a basic empirical model and test the hypotheses with pooled time-series cross-sectional data, which cover 18 Asian countries during the period 1960-2012. Based on trichotomous categorization of political regime, such as democracy, partial democracy, and dictatorship, we find that partial democracy is more likely to be associated with a higher growth rate rather than democracy and dictatorship, and that partial democracy’s effect on economic growth is largely indirect through increased investment, all other things being equal.

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