거버넌스와 경제성장
Governance and Economic Growth
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초록
본 연구는 거버넌스가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 파악하고 이로부터 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 데 목적이 있다. 분석을 위해서 World Bank의 WGI와 Penn World Table 8.0을 활용하였다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. ①시민참여와 책임성, 규제의 질, 법치는 1인당 GDP에 미치는 영향이 유의하였지만, 부패의 억제, 정치적 안정과 폭력/테러 부재, 정부의 효과성은 유의한 영향을 미치지는 않았다. ②빠른 경제성장을 보인 동아시아 지역에서 두 변수 간의 관계는 다른 지역과 특별히 다르지는 않았다. ③시민참여와 책임성, 정치적 안정성과 폭력/테러의 부재, 정부의 효과성의 경우에는 저소득 국가일수록 거버넌스가 1인당 GDP에 미치는 영향이 크게 나타났다. ④시민참여와 책임성, 정부의 효과성, 법치 등이 경제성장률 제고에 유의하였다. ⑤글로벌 금융위기 기간을 포함하면 거버넌스의 추정계수가 양의 값을 취하기는 하지만 유의수준이 낮아서 경제성장률에 유의한 영향을 미쳤다고 단정하기는 어렵다. ⑥다른 조건이 일정할 때 동아시아 국가들은 자국의 거버넌스 수준에 대해서 다른 나라보다 높은 경제성장률을 보였다. 분석결과는 우리나라가 장기적으로 성장세를 지속하기 위해서는 거버넌스를 개혁해야 하며, 개혁의 목표를 포용적 제도의 정착에 둘 필요가 있음을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of governance on economic growth. We use Worldwide Governance Indicators and Penn World Table 8.0 data for empirical work. Major findings are as follows. (1) Voice and accountability, regulatory quality and rule of law have a significant effect on per capita GDP, however, control of corruption, political stability and absence of violence, and government effectiveness do not have it. (2) East Asian countries which show rapid growth are not very much different from other areas as for the relationship between WGI and per capita GDP. (3) Lower income countries have stronger effect from WGI on per capita GDP in case of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness. (4) Per capita GDP is lowered by the global financial crisis. (5) Voice and accountability, government effectiveness, rule of law have contributed to increase growth rate for the pre-crisis period. (6) If the crisis period is included for the analysis, the positive causal relationship is not observed between the governance indicators and growth rate. (7) If other things are same, East Asian countries show higher growth rate for the same governance level than other countries. Empirical results imply that governance reform is required to make a sustainable growth in the long run and target of the reform needs to focus on setting up inclusive institutions.
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