미얀마 2018: ‘로힝자 위기’와 민주주의 공고화의 갈림길
Myanmar in 2018: ‘Rohingya Crisis’ and Democratic Consolidation at Crossroads
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아웅산 수찌가 이끄는 민족민주동맹(NLD)정부가 절차적 정당성(procedural legitimacy)을 기반으로 2016년에 출범했을 당시 이들이 내건 3대 개혁과제는 헌법개정, 소수민족과의 화해, 경제부흥이었다. 이로써 이 세 가지 사안이 아 웅산 수찌 정부의 성과 정당성(performance legitimacy)을 평가하는 판단 기준 이 되었다. 이와 같은 성과 정당성은 신생민주주의의 공고화를 위해 해결해야 할 세 가지 과제- 이행기 문제, 맥락의 문제, 시스템 문제 -의 측면에서 보자면, 헌법 개정 의 문제는 이행기 문제에, 종족간 화해의 문제는 맥락의 문제에. 경제부흥은 시 스템문제에각각해당한다.이때신생민주주의가 이 세장애물을넘지못할 경우 민주주의 공고화로의 진전이 아닌 민주주의의 해체에 이를 수 있다. 이 글은 ‘사람중심의 포용적 지속가능한 발전’을 공표하고 3년 차를 맞은 아 웅산 수찌 NLD정부에 대한 평가이자 ‘질서 있는 이행모델’(model of orderly transition)로서의 미얀마 민주주의의 공고화 가능성 여부에 대한 진단이다. 미 얀마의민주화이행은 ‘보장을통한이행’(transitionwithguarantees),특히헌 법적 보장(constitutional guarantee)하에서 군부의 부분적 퇴각이라는 독특한 ‘타협에 의한 민주화’(pacted democratization)로 시작했다. 그러나 타협에 의한 민주화가 지속된 2018년의 수지 정부의 성과 정당성을 평가하자면, 오랜 군사정부 시기의 잔재인 2008년 헌법 개정, 버마화 (Burmanization)에 따른 소수종족 간 갈등, 특히 ‘로힝자 위기’, 경제부흥을 위 한 개혁을 답보상태로 있게 하는 중요한 요인인 군부와 NLD의 이중권력 상태, 이 세 가지 문제 해결을 제대로 진전시키지 못함으로써 성과 정당성의 위기 양 상을 보여주었다. 그러나 이러한 ‘질서있는 이행’의 보수적 성격은 역설적이 게도 체제변동없는 개혁‧개방 방식을 고민하고 있는 북한정권에 유의미한 교 훈이될수있다.
Abstract
Aung San Suu Kyi-led the NLD government set three reform tasks including the amendment of 2008 constitution, the reconciliation with EAO (ethnic army organizations), and the boosting economic growth. In this context these three tasks became to be criteria for estimating performance legitimacy of Suu Kyi government. In general performance legitimacy is closely aligned with the democratic consolidation of nascent democracies. There are three hurdles such as the transition problems, the contextual problems, and the systemic problems in relation to democratic consolidation. To consider Myanmar's context, constitutional reform is equivalent to the transition problem, reconciliation with ethnic minorities to contextual problem, and enhancing the economic status to such a systemic problem. If they fail to address these three tasks, they could encounter democratic deconsolidation rather than democratic consolidation. It means the crisis of performance legitimacy. This paper is trying to evaluate the performance of Suu Kyi government focusing on the year 2018. As well recognized, NLD government raised the issue of people-centered sustainable development when inaugurated in 2016. Myanmar's democratization can be defined as a model of orderly transition based on a pact triggered by the consensus between reformers within authoritarian power bloc and moderates within democratic opposition forces. There, all the power transition should be conducted through a free and fair election process, not by violent confrontation. In Myanmar's vein, the essence of pacted democratization was that the free and fair election is guaranteed for Suu Kyi led-democratic forces, in turn, the 2008 constitution protecting Tatmadaw's political life is recognized by democratic forces. However, in retrospect of 2018 in Myanmar, the 2008 constitution became a representative case of a transition problem thereby hindering Suu Kyi government from solving the contextual problem of reconciliation with ethnic minorities and the systemic problem of boosting the economy under the structure of power-sharing between a civilian government and politicized military. In a way Suu Kyi's leadership seems to resemble Tatmadaw's ruling style as used in the past, particularly concerning the 'Rohingya crisis'. In this context, US and other western countries gave a warning and even limited their support. Meanwhile, this kind of conservative direction of Myanmar's orderly transition could give a meaningful implication to the North Korean regime considering how it can undertake the reform and opening-up without regime change. In conclusion Suu kyi-led NLD could face the unavoidable sufferings in the upcoming 2020 general election if they are unable to overcome the underperformance as shown in 2018.
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