지방정부 지출의 변동패턴에 관한 연구
A Study on Patterns of the change of Local Government Expenditure
0
조회
0
다운로드
8
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
정부지출은 기본적으로 정책변동에 영향을 받는다. 정책결정자 혹은 예산결정자가 예산을 계획하거나 예측할 때 정부지출의 변동성을 파악해 정책단절을 대비하고, 단절발생시 대체 전략을 세울 수 있어야 한다. 그동안 정부지출의 변동성에 대한 실증적 연구들은 점증적 변동패턴이 주를 이뤘다. 그러나, 정책이나 예산은 소폭의 변동을 나타내는 점증적 변화만 존재하는 것이 아니다. 1970년대 후반 점증적 변화와 함께 대폭적인 변화가 종종 발생하게 되면서 점증주의에 대한 한계가 드러나게 되었다. 이에 본 연구는 지방정부의 예산지출의 변화 패턴을 계량분석을 통해 살펴보고자 한다. 점증성 검증, 정규성 검증, 단절점 발견 등의 분석을 통해 단절의 존재여부를 확인한 결과 대체로 점증적 변화를 보였고, 때때로 비점증적 변화를 보였다. 단절을 나타내는 세첨분포를 보였으며, 지방자치제도의 실시와 IMF시기에 단절점이 나타난 것으로 분석되었다. 지방자치제도 실시 후에 변동의 규모가 커진 것을 알 수 있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to explain various patterns of local government expenditures with punctuated equilibrium theory extensively used for recent research on policy and budget analysis. In addition to explain expenditure patterns, this study also tries to distinguish variables influencing policy punctuation. Findings of this study are expected to help policy makers predict policy punctuation so that they prepare alternative policies during rapid policy changes. To investigate punctuation equilibrium in local expenditures, various tests are employed such as gradualism test, kurtosis test, normality test, and so on. Test results reveal that most governmental budgets are gradually changed while punctuation points are rarely found. This finding strongly suggests that policies in Korea local governments have been changed gradually.
참고문헌 (27)
- 이문영, "공공재무관리" (2002), 법문사
- 손희준, "민선지방자치 10년의 재정운영 평가", 민선자치평가심 포지엄자료집 (2005)
- "경제통계연보" (2012)[URL]
- "지방재정연감"[URL]
- Bailey, J. J., "Operationalizing Incrementalism: Meaxuring the muddles", Public Administration Review, 35, pp.60~66 (1975)
- Baumgartner, F.R., "Punctuations, Ideas, and Public Policy, In Policy Dynamics", pp.293~306 (2002), University of Chicago Press
- Baumgartner. F..R, "Agendas and instability in a American politics" (1993), University of Chicago Press
- Baumgartner, F.R, "The Shape of Change: Punctuations and Stability in U.S. Budgeting, 1947-1994" (1996), Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
- Baumgartner, F. R., "Punctuated Equilibrium in French Budgeting Processes", Journal of European Public Policy, 13(7), pp.1086~1103 (2006)
- Bowling, C.J., "Change and Continuity in State Administration: Administrative Leadership across Four Decades", Public Administration Review, 58(5), pp.429~445 (1998)
- Danziger, J., "Assessing incrementalism in british municipal budgeting", British Journal of Political Science, 6(3), pp.335~350 (1976)
- Davis, O. A., "A Theory of the Budget Process", American Political Science Review, 60, pp.529~547 (1966)
- Davis, O.A., "Towards a Predictive Theory of Government Expenditure: US Domestic Appropriations", British Journal of Political Science, 4(4), pp.419~452 (1974)
- Gould, J., "Punctuated Equilibria: The Tempo and Mode of Evolution Reconsidered", Paleobiology, 3(2), pp.115~151 (1977)
- Jones, B. D., "The Politics of Attention" (2005), University of Chicago Press
- Jones, B. D., "The Shape of Change: Punctuations and Stability in U.S. Budgeting, 1947-1994" (1996), Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
- Jones, B.D., "“Policy Punctuations: U.S. Budgetary Authority, 1947-1995", Journal of Politics, 60(1), pp.1~33 (1998)
- Jones, B. D., "Policy Punctuations in American Political Institutions", American Political Science Review, 97(1), pp.151~169 (2003)
- Jones, B. D., "A general empirical law of public budgets: A comparative analysis", American Journal of Political Science, 53(4), pp.855~837 (2009)
- Jordan, M. M., "Punctuations and Agendas: A New Look at Local Government Budget Expenditures", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 22(3), pp.345~360 (2003)
- Lindblom, C. E., "The Science of “Muddling Through”", Public Administration Review, 19(2), pp.79~88 (1959), 19(2) : 79-88.
- Mortensen, P. B., "Policy Punctuations in Danish Local Budgeting", Public Administration, 83(4), pp.931~950 (2005)
- Padgett, J. F., "Bounded rationality in budgetary research", American Political Science Review, 74(6), pp.354~372 (1980)
- True, J. L., "Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Explaining Stability and Change in American Policymaking, In Theories of the Policy Process" (1999), Westview Press
- Wildavsky, A. B., "The Politics of Budgetary Process" (1964), Little, Brown and Company
- Wildavsky, A.B, "The new politics of the budgetary process" (1997), Longman Publishers
- Wlezien, C, "Measures and Models of Budgetary Policy", The Policy Studies Journal, 31(2), pp.273~286 (2003)