한미 방위비분담금 협상 결정요인 연구: 양면게임이론을 중심으로

Abstract

Robert D. Putnam proposed the Two Level Theory as a framework for analyzing factors influencing foreign policy decisions. The Two Level Theory consists of two levels: international negotiations and domestic negotiations. Because international and domestic politics are closely correlated, foreign policies such as inter-state negotiations are determined under the simultaneous action of international and domestic pressures(Level I). Two Level Theory has not achieved solid status as a theory due to several limitations such as variable diversity, but it has usefulness in analyzing foreign policy determinants that require negotiations between countries. The South Korea-U.S. SMA(Special Measure Agreement) negotiations are a combination of international and domestic factors that affect decisions. SMA negotiations, which have continued since 1991, have been decided by political and economic factors between the two countries. In particular, the 10th and 11th negotiations, which took place after the Trump administration of the U.S., were analyzed to have been affected by a variety of international and domestic variables than ever before. In the Level I negotiations, international political issues such as the alliance between South Korea and the U.S., NATO's increased defense costs, the end of the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement(GSOMIA), South Korea's force deploy decision to Hormuz, and South Korea's early transfer of wartime operational control. In the Level II confirmed that pressure from Congress, domestic opinion from both countries (especially the U.S. the presidential election process and Trump and Republican approval ratings), suspension of Korean workers in Korea, continued reduction of defense contributions, and no rejection of ratification by the Korean National Assembly.