미중간 전략적 경쟁과 한반도 주변지역 군사분쟁 전망
The Strategic Rivalry between the U.S. and China and a Prospects of Future War in the East Asia
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최근 미래전쟁에 대한 관심이 증대되면서, 주로 4차 산업혁명의 성과에 따라 나타나고 있는 첨단과학기술이 어떻게 군사적으로 활용될 수 있고, 이러한 양상이 미래전쟁에 어떤 영향을 줄 것인가에 관심이 몰리고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 기술결정론적 미래전쟁론과 달리, 국가 지도자들의 정책성향과 군사전략적 성격이 미래전쟁으로 이어질 수 있다는 시각을 견지한다. 그리고 이같은 시각에 따라, 현재 진행되고 있는 미중간 전략적 경쟁이 동아시아 안보질서에 어떤 영향을 줄 수 있고, 어떤 형태의 미래전쟁이 일어날 수 있는가를 분석하고자 했다. 이에 따라 타이완과 동중국해 등지에서의 미중간 분쟁이 발발할 수 있고, 이같은 분쟁은 한국의 국가이익에도 중대한 영향을 줄 수 있다고 분석했다. 그리고 한국의 안보전략은 이같은 점을 고려하여, 그 지리적 대상도 확대하고, 전력증강이나 한미동맹의 재조정을 통해 이같은 잠재적 안보위협요인에 대응할 필요가 있다는 정책을 제언했다.
Abstract
Existing discussions of the future war have tended to focus on the applicability of cutting edge technology such as artificial intelligence to the development of military weapons. According to this kind of technology-based future war discussions, any country equipped with these future-oriented technology can win a future war. It is the reason why many countries already make efforts to introduce the results of the 4th industrial revolution to the development of high-tech military weapons. However, considering the real possibility of future war in the East Asia region, we cannot ignore the state actors who can decide a war based on military strategy and political objectives. In this sense, we have to review the evolution of military strategy and foreign policy of major countries especially focusing on the United States and China. Since the 2010s, the two countries have competed each other in terms of national strategy by developing cutting-edge military technologies and enlarging its sphere of diplomacy to gain allies’ or neighboring countries support. This paper tries to articulate that a future war can be erupted in the process of this strategic competition by two major powers. Especially, as was pointed out by Graham Allison or other researchers, some areas like South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan can become flash points in which the two countries would collide each other. By the way, these areas are crucial for South Korea’s national interest because its major sea lanes have passed through these sea routes. By that reason, South Korea should rebuild its national security policy considering the necessity of stability in these areas. In this regard, this paper suggests some policy agendas for South Korea in the midst of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry.
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