2022-2023년 대만해협 위기 평가와 한국의 대비 방향
Assessment of the 2022-2023 Taiwan Strait Crisis and South Korea’s Policy Direction
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이 글은 미⋅중 패권경쟁이 심화되고 있는 가운데 중국의 대만 침공 가능성과 대만해협에서의 위기 변화 양상을 분석함으로써 한국 안보에 미치는 영향과 대응 방향에 주목한다. 미국은 대만과의 교류⋅협력과 군사적지원을 강화하면서 기존의 ‘전략적 모호성’ 입장에 변화를 주고 있다. 중국은 2024년 양회에서 대만과의 평화통일 추진 문구를 삭제하였으며 ‘하나의중국 원칙’과 대만 재통일이 역사적 사명임을 지속 강조하고 있다. 2022∼ 2023년 대만해협 위기는 과거 대만해협 위기와 비교 시 전력 규모와 훈련수준 등에서 ‘새로운 패턴의 무력시위(소위 New Normal)’를 시행하고 있어 이에 대한 분석과 전망이 요구됨을 알 수 있다. 3차 대만해협 위기 이후변화된 미⋅중 관계, 안보환경과 국제질서를 고려했을 때, 향후 대만해협에서의 중국과 대만 간의 갈등과 분쟁은 제4차 대만해협 위기로 악화될 가능성이 매우 높다. 대만해협 위기가 전개된다면 주한미군의 ‘전략적 유연성(Strategic Flexibility)’과 북한의 도발 등 포괄적 안보측면에서 한국에 미치는 부정적 영향은 매우 클 것으로 예상된다. 이에 전략 및 작전적 수준에서 대만해협 위기를 분석하고 분쟁양상을 고찰하여 국가안보와 한미동맹차원에서 전략적 대응 방향을 제시하는 노력이 필요한 시점이다.
Abstract
This article focuses on the impact on Korean security an the direction of response by analyzing the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and the changing crisis situation in the Taiwan Strait amid the intensifying competition for hegemony between the United State and China. The U.S. is changing its initial policy of strategic ambiguity and is strengthening cooperation⋅exchanges and military support for Taiwan. China has dropped references to “Peaceful Reunification” during Two Sessions of 2024 and is continuously emphasizing the “One China Policy” and reunification with Taiwan as a historic mission. In particular, compared to the past, the 2022∼ 2023 Taiwan Strait Crisis showed a completely new pattern of military show-of-force(the so-called New Normal) in terms of force scale and intensity of military exercises. Hence an analysis and forecasting are required. Considering the changes in U.S.-China relations, security environment, and international order since the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, it is highly likely that future conflicts and disputes between China and Taiwan would lead to a Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis. Such a crisis is expected impose a significantly negative impact on the Republic of Korea from a comprehensive security perspective. Thus, it is necessary to make efforts to analyze the Taiwan Strait Crisis on a strategic and operational level, contemplate on patterns of conflict, and provide a strategic response on the grounds of national security and the ROK-U.S. alliance.
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