보안메신저기반 마약조직의 등장과 마약범죄발생 사이의 인과관계 연구: 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론의 활용

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the emergence of new drug rings using telegram and virtual currency on drug crime in general, and analyzes organizational behavior and decision-making process through the system dynamics methodology to enable investigative agencies access strategically in the investigation of new drug organizations. In order to achieve the research purpose, a feedback loop was organized that reflects the detailed structure of the Telegram drug organization and risk aversion behavior by referring to the investigation case of 'Obang', the largest telegram drug group in Korea, and related press releases. By deriving a causal map that interacts with the loop reflecting the characteristics of drug crime in general, the above loop laid the foundation for analysis through the system dynamics methodology. Each causal feedback loop with other loops(or by itself) directly or indirectly influenced the characteristics of drug crimes and the expansion and growth of new drug gangs. Some elements constituting the feedback loop had complexities that were difficult to analyze with a general approach, such as including a significant delay between the progress of the loop. The causal map of this study, designed based on systemic thinking, will be extended to Stock-Flow Diagram through the acquisition of additional quantitative data. In a future study through the expanded Stock-Flow Diagram, we would like to examine the dynamic change trend of the new drug crime organization through the scenario analysis for policy of the above model.