영토분쟁의 정치화와 ICJ: 프레아 비히어 사원 분쟁을 중심으로
Peaceful Resolution of Politicized Territorial Dispute and International Court of Justice
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높은 경제적 상호의존성에도 불구하고 인도태평양 지역은 영토 및 해양 분쟁의 빈도와 강도가 증가하는 듯 하다. 동시에 외교안보문제의 가시성이 높아지면서 국내정치적 문제가 영토분쟁을 추동하는 정치화 현상 역시 심화되고 있다. 선행연구들은 영토분쟁의 해결에 있어서 분쟁영토의 가치, 상호의존성, 이슈현저성, 국내외적 정당성 확보 등의 영향을 강조하나, 분쟁의 정치화로 인해 강화되는 주요 변수들간의 긴밀한 상호작용성에 대한 고려는 여전히 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구는 국내정치적 이익을 위해 영토분쟁의 정치화가 분쟁의 이슈현저성 및 분쟁영토의 가치를 높이면서 영토상실의 위험성과 양자협상의 국내정치적 비용 역시 높이기 때문에 결국 국내정치적 면죄부 확보의 수단으로서 ICJ 재판을 통한 분쟁해결에 대한 선호가 커지는 동학에 대해 살펴본다. 구체적으로 본 연구는 2008년 이후 재점화된 캄보디아와 태국 간 프레아 비히어 사원 분쟁이 ICJ 판결을 통해 잠정적으로 해결되는 과정을 살펴본다. 이를 통해 본 연구는 영토분쟁 연구에 있어서 분쟁의 동학 연구의 필요성 및 ICJ의 영토분쟁 판결에 대한 국제정치학적 분석의 활성화 필요성을 강조한다.
Abstract
Why do states let a third party such as the ICJ decide on their territorial disputes? Prior research points out value of the disputed territory, economic interdependence, and issue salience as key variables for dispute resolution. It also emphasizes securing legitimacy, obtaining political cover for domestic opposition, and decreasing uncertainty as key motives for the delegation. However, considering that these variables and motives are strongly intertwined and that more territorial disputes are politicized, this study argues that ICJ’s legally-binding decisions can be an effective means for peaceful resolution of politicizatied territorial disputes. More specifically, the study examines the dynamics of how Thai-Cambodian territorial dispute over the temple of Preah Vihear was politicized, escalated to millitary conflicts, and resolved by the Court’s decision.
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