한반도 유사시 미군의 증원 전망
Prospects for U.S. Force Reinforcements in a Korean Contingency
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21세기의 서막도 전쟁으로 얼룩지고 있다. 유럽과 중동에서 전쟁이 지속되는 가운데, 동아시아 지역에서도 분쟁의 가능성이 커지고 있다. 이 세 지역은 모두 미국에 전략적으로 중요한 지역으로, 동시다발적인 분쟁 가능성은 심각한 도전이 되고 있다. 특히 최근 미국의 안보전략이 중국과 러시아와의 경쟁 및 군사적 대비에 초점을 맞추면서, 지역분쟁 발생 시 신속한 대응에 대한 불확실성이 증대되고 있다. 이러한 배경에서 이 논문은 한반도 유사시 “미군의 계획된 증원은 가능할 것인가” 라는 의문을 제기하고, 미국의 개입 의지와 능력을 분석의 틀로 적용하여 증원의 규모와 양상을 전망하였다. 한반도와 대만에서의 분쟁상황을 가정하여 분석한 결과, 한반도 단일전쟁일 경우 대규모 지상군보다는 해·공군 중심의 지원이 이루어질 가능성이 높으며, 두 지역에서 동시에 전쟁이 발발할 경우에는 전략자산을 중심으로 제한적인 지원이 이루어질 것으로 예상된다.
Abstract
The beginning of the new millennium in the 21st century is stained with war. With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East lasting for several years, the likelihood of disputes is increasing in East Asia, including Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. These three regions are of significant strategic importance to the United States, leading to heightened interest in how the U.S. might respond if conflicts arise simultaneously in these areas. However, recent U.S. security and defense strategies prioritize countering the challenges posed by China and Russia, creating growing uncertainty about the U.S.’ commitment and capability to intervene in regional conflicts. In this context, this paper poses the question, “Can the U.S. execute its planned reinforcements during a crisis on the Korean Peninsula?” The analysis, which assumes conflicts on the Korean Peninsula and in Taiwan, suggests that if there is a single war on the Korean Peninsula, reinforcements will likely be centered on naval and air forces rather than large-scale ground forces. However, if conflicts occur simultaneously in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, it is highly probable that reinforcements will be limited, focusing primarily on strategic assets.
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