북한 급변사태와 남북연합: 통일과정적 접근

Abstract

The principles of unification that should be aimed for are ‘progressiveness,’ which stresses the improvement of the quality of life in both South and North Korea, and ‘dynamics’ which excludes pursuing a mechanized sequence and following a fixed path in the unification process. Based on these principles, peaceful coexistence and a gradual path towards peaceful unification triggered by North Korea’s own change is ideal; however, despite this hope, the possibility of the North Korean regime collapsing and unexpected contingencies arising always exists. In fact, a desirable path towards achieving gradual peaceful unification and unification by absorption after North Korea’s collapse can coexist as possible paths to unification. It is more realistic to say after the prolonged process of peaceful unification, the actual process of unification will go through the final stages of the absorption phase after the sudden regime collapse of North Korea. After the sudden collapse of North Korea, there is a high possibility that the unification process will be carried out rapidly including the uncontrolled. However, if the dynamics of the unification process becomes excessive, the possibility of progressiveness being undermined cannot be excluded. Whether the process of peaceful unification is gradual or it takes place rapidly through reunification by absorption as a result of a contingency, it is important to control the excessive dynamics of the unification process and to guide and prepare for a desirable unification through systematic engagement. Thus, a Korean Commonwealth is valuable due to these reasons. In order to reach an equal agreement between South and North Korea after the possible contingencies in the North, the Korean Commonwealth is still a useful device in the unification process. The requirements for the Korean commonwealth in times of possible contingencies in the North are as follows. First, to arrange emergency management and to perform organization ability while becoming a powerful institutional device that allows the admission of the unification process led by Korea. Second, due to the fundamental consultative organization of the Korean Commonwealth, South Korea will be able to intervene without resistance from the North Korean elites and citizens. Third, the improper intervention by China and the United States can be prevented and Korean Commonwealth can function as an internal self-determining system for the peninsula. Lastly, the Korean Commonwealth is based on equal reciprocity it will be possible to secure the legitimacy of unification and to make decisions. In conclusion, the Korean Commonwealth could be a useful institutional device that guarantees the principles of dynamics and progressiveness while leading the unification process in the event of a contingency situation in North Korea.