TII와 TSI를 통해 본 한·EU 무역구조분석

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find the inherent cause of Korea's trade imbalance with EU after the Korea-EU FTA and to find a clue to improve trade balance through product-specific structure analysis. For this study, TII and TSI analysis were conducted using trade data from 2009 to 2018. TII analysis showed that Korea recorded trade surplus in Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Czech Republic and Belgium after the Korea-EU FTA. However, it was not enough to offset the trade deficit led by Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Finland. As a result of comparing TII and TSI considering the trade weight of TOP 20 export items, it was confirmed that the trade balance inversion phenomenon of Korea to EU is based on the decline of trade specialization by item including optical/medical precision equipment(90). When TII-TSI analysis, Korea-EU trade status, and WON/EURO exchange rate fluctuations are comprehensively analyzed, the continuous decline in the WON/EURO exchange rate, the drop in EU import goods prices, the increase in domestic import consumption of high quality EU products, the increase in domestic consumers' income, the expansion of import sales networks such as internet shopping malls, preference for high-quality goods from Europe, the change in import lines of offshore products such as machinery (84) to EU products may be pointed out as a cause of trade deficit in Korea after the Korea-EU FTA. Therefore, in order to overcome the EU trade deficit under the Korea-EU FTA, first, the government should strongly urge the fairness of the investigation in relation to the EU's safeguard investigation into Korean steel and steel products. Second, the renegotiation of EU-level non-tariff barriers, technical cooperation and discussions on the transfer should be concreted. Third, it is necessary to review new global export strategies, production strategies, and strategic alliances at the corporate level. Fourth, it is considered that the dynamic ripple effect such as WON/EURO exchange rate fluctuation and exchange risk should be prepared.