EU 회원국의 거시경제상황이 한국의 대EU 수출에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

In the meantime sluggish exports of Korean companies since the latter half of 2018, trade conditions have been influenced due to uncertainty of Brexit negotiation, trade tensions between the United States (US) and China as well as between the US and the European Union (EU), main trade partner with Korea. Hence, this paper aims to analyze trade development of Korea to the EU after the enforcement of the Korea-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and economic conditions of the EU markets, and to consider implications of empirical analysis on export increase of Korean companies based on principal factors of export changes toward the EU markets. This empirical analysis reflects change rates (±rate percentages compared to the previous years) about import increase rate, real GDP growth rate, real effective exchange rate, and terms of trade of individual country of the EU on yearly basis, which takes into account export changes of Korea to the EU markets during 2011-2019 in order to select principal factors of export increase in the EU markets since the enforcement of the Korea-EU FTA. According to correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis, import increase rate of individual country has been related with real GDP growth rate of the country in the EU markets, whilst export change rate of Korea to individual country of the EU has no direct relations with such indicators as import increase rate, real effective exchange rate, and terms of trade. It implies that the results of partial correlation analysis can be empirical case to explain Gravity Model which import increase is influenced directly by GDP. The import increase of individual country of the EU can be influenced from real GDP growth of the country in the EU markets, although export increase of Korean companies has no direct relation with the ormer. Therefore, it can be inferred that potentials of export increase of Korean companies depends on developments of GDP as well as per capita GDP as a result of real GDP growth of main trade partners with Korea in the EU markets.