分析中国对主要进口国的进口额决定因素及启示

Abstract

In this study, from time series data from 1998 to 2013, we provide an analysis of the determinants that affect China's import volume based on a panel Gravity model. Main results based on Random-effects model are that China and Japan, The United States, Taiwan, Korea`s GDP, trade dependence, and the savings of chinese people have showed the results of the positive(+) on imports. And the distance between China's capital and other countries' showed the results of the negative(-) on imports. In addition, whether the FTA dummy variable was signed or not, and a coastal country / inland country dummy variables have no impact on imports. Through the analysis, this study has following implications. Firstly, with the rise of China's labor wages, their purchasing power has increased and consumption standards have improved. And through the strengthening of bilateral economic cooperation, opportunities should be sized to expand domestic market demand. Secondly, in response to changes in trade forms, in order to keep its specialized technological capabilities, the value-added industries can be expanded and introduced to overseas by the efforts of governmental policies. Thirdly, owing to our high trade dependence on China, in order to reduce the risk from China, measures needed to be diversified for us to enter China's domestic market sector, meanwhile, we should center on countries with development potential to diversify our export market.