미국의 대북정책 전환과 북,미 관계전망
Changes of the U.S Policy toward North Korea and Future of the U.S -DPRK Relationship
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초록
‘9·19공동성명’과 그 후속조치인 ‘2·13합의’, ‘10·3합의’ 이후 북핵문제는 핵폐기 수순에 진입하면서 북·미관계 정상화 논의가 급물살을 타기 시작했다. 출범 초기, 부시 행정부는 전임 클린턴 정책의 계승을 거부하고 북·미 합의를 파기하며 ‘적대적 무시’정책을 통한 대북 압박정책을 지속하였다. 하지만 북핵문제가 장기국면으로 들어가자 미국은 중국과 협력하여 북한체제의 변환을 촉진하고 협력안보의 틀을 구상하는 대북 공동 관리정책을 추진하였다. 북한이 미·중 협력에 의한 대북관리 정책에 크게 반발하며 미사일 발사, 핵실험 등을 잇달아 단행하자, 미국은 중간선거 직후 북·미 직접대화로 접근방식을 바꾸었다. 2008년 부시 대통령의 임기 내에 북·미 관계를 정상화하기 위한 노력이 진행 중이다. 핵시설 불능화와 핵프로그램의 신고·검증이 끝나 ‘9·19공동성명’이 3단계에 진입할 경우 외교대표부가 상호 설치되는 등 북·미 관계정상화가 예상된다. 하지만 대사급 외교관계는 북한 핵시설, 핵물질 등의 해체·반출 외에 미 의회의 우려사항이 모두 해소된 뒤에 가능하게 될 것이다.
Abstract
After ‘9·19 Joint Statement’ and following ‘2·13 Agreement’, ‘10·3 Agreement’, it entered into the process of denuclearization of North Korean nuke. Along with this, the normalization of the diplomatic relationship between North Korea and the United States began to discuss the progress ride. At the initial inauguration, Bush Administration denied to succeed the former President Clinton’s policy of North Korea, and broke off the agreement, and continued a benign neglect policy toward North Korea. As the North Korean nuke issue entered a long-term phase, the U.S. carried out the policy of joint control over North Korea with China, which is intended to facilitate the transformation of North Korean regime and to arrange for the cooperative security framework in the Northeast Asia. However, North Korea repelled the U.S.-China’s policies to launch long-range missiles and to test nuclear weapon. Eventually, the U.S. changed its approach to the direct dialogue with North Korea after the U.S. off-year election at November 7 2006. Efforts to normalize the U.S.-North Korea relations within President Bush’s tenure in 2008 are proceeding. If the Six Parties adopted the ‘3rd-Phase Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement’ after completion of disablement of nuke facilities and the declaration of nuke programs according to 2·13 Agreement, the diplomatic normalization of the U.S.-North Korea is supposed including the mutual establishment of representative office. However, Embassy level diplomatic relationship possibly be expected when North Korea get rid of all the concerns of Congress in addition to the dissolution of nuclear issues.
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