국제원유가격 변동 및 인도 석유수입과 무역수지 간의 인과관계 분석
The Causality Analysis between both Oil Price and Import and Trade Balance in India
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본 연구는 1996년 2분기부터 2022년 2분기까지의 자료를 이용하여 세계원유가격 변동 및 석유수입과 인도 무역수지 간에 어떤 인과관계가 있는지를 분석하였다. 이러한 분석을 위하여글로벌 원유가격 변동과 무역수지, 전체 수입대비 석유수입 비중과 무역수지, 그리고 석유제품수출입 비중과 무역수지 간의 인과관계를 VAR 및 VECM 모델을 이용하였다. 분석결과, 원유가격 변동과 무역수지 변동 간에는 인과관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 석유수입비중과 무역수지변동 간의 분석에서는 무역수지 변동이 석유수입 비중에 미약하나마 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 석유수출입 비중과 무역수지 변동 간에는 인과관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 종합해보면, 국제원유가격의 변동은 무역수지 변동과는 통계적으로 연관성이 없지만, 무역수지가 개선되면 전체 석유수입 비중은 증가하는 것으로 해석된다. 또한 원유가격 변동에 따른 무역을 조정하는 메카니즘은 인도에는 적용되지 않는다는 결론이다. 이러한 분석에 따라 본 연구는 인도는 원유가격변동에 대응할 수 있는 정책적 대안이 필요하다는 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the causality relationship between both global crude oil price fluctuations and oil imports and India's trade balance using data from the 1996 q2 to the 2022 q2. To this end, this study analyzes the relationship between global crude oil price fluctuations and trade balance, the share of oil import to total imports and exports, and the ratio of petroleum products imports and exports and trade balance with VAR and VECM models. The results show that there is no causality relationship between crude oil prices and the trade balance. In the analysis between the share of oil imports and changes in the trade balance, it finds that the change in the trade balance has a weak effect on the share of oil imports. Finally, it shows that there is no causal relationship between the share of oil exports and imports and changes in the trade balance. Taken together, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices are not statistically related to fluctuations in the trade balance, but it implies that the share of total oil imports increases when the trade balance improves. It also concludes that the mechanism for adjusting trade according to changes in crude oil prices does not apply to India. India needs policy alternatives to respond to changes in crude oil prices.
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