대한민국 에너지 수입과 경제 성장 간의 동태적 관계 분석: VAR 모형과 Granger 인과관계 검정을 중심으로
Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between South Korea's Energy Imports and Economic Growth: Focusing on the VAR Model and Granger Causality Test
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초록
본 논문에서는 대한민국의 에너지 수입과 경제 성장 간의 동태적 관계를 분석하기 위해 VAR(벡터 자기회귀) 모형과 Granger 인과관계 검정을 활용하여 주요 에너지원인 석유, 석탄, 천연가스의 수입량이 실질 GDP, 수출 총액, 고정 자본 형성 등 경제 지표에 미치는 영향을 1988년부터 2023년까지의 분기별 데이터를 통해 실증적으로 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 주요 에너지원 수입량은 경제 성장과 밀접한 관계를 가지며, 특히 천연가스 수입량이 GDP에 유의미한 영향을 미친다는 결론을 도출하였다. 석유 수입량은 자기 자신의 과거 수입량과 천연가스 수입량에 영향을 받았으며, 천연가스 수입량은 GDP, 석탄 수입량, 자기 자신의 과거 수입량과 밀접한 관계를 보였다. 석탄 수입량은 수출량과 높은 상관관계를 보였으며, 이는 수출 활동이 활발할수록 석탄 수요가 증가하는 경향을 나타낸다. 본 연구는 에너지 수입 정책이 경제 성장 및 안정성에 미치는 영향을 이해하는 데 중요한 기초 자료를 제공하며, 정책 결정자들이 에너지 수입 전략을 수립하는 데 유용한 통찰을 제공한다. 에너지 자립도를 높이기 위한 지속적인 노력이 필요함을 강조하며, 한국 경제의 지속 가능한 발전을 위한 실질적인 전략을 제시한다.
Abstract
In this paper, it employs the Vector Autoregression(VAR) model and Granger causality tests to examin the dynamic relationship between South Korea’s energy imports and economic growth. The analysis employs empirical methods to examine the impact of import volumes of major energy sources, including oil, coal, and natural gas, on economic indicators such as real GDP, total exports, and gross fixed capital formation. It utilises quarterly data from 1988 to 2023. The findings demonstrate that the import volumes of these pivotal energy sources are closely associated with economic growth, with natural gas imports exhibiting a pronounced impact on GDP. In particular, the impact of volumes of oil are influenced by their past import volumes and those of natural gas, while the import volumes of natural gas are closely related to GDP, as well as to those of coal and to their past import volumes. The correlation between coal imports and export volumes suggests that increased coal demand is associated with greater export activity. This study provides vital insights into the influence of energy import policies on economic growth and stability, offering valuable guidance for policymakers in formulating energy import strategies. It highlights the necessity for sustained efforts to enhance energy self-sufficiency and presents pragmatic strategies for the sustainable development of the South Korean economy.
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