우리나라 무역수지에 대한 유가 변동의 비대칭성 분석: 10대 교역상대국을 중심으로
Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks and Bilateral Trade Balances of Korea and her Top 10 Trading Partners
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초록
본 연구는 우리나라와 10대 교역상대국의 양자 간 무역수지를 선형 및 비선형 모형을 이용하여 추정하고, 유가의 변동이 우리나라의 무역수지에 미치는 영향이 비대칭성을 가지는지를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 유가의 변동은 우리나라의 무역수지에 유의한 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 대부분의 분석대상 국가에 대해 유가의 상승과하락이 무역수지에 미치는 영향이 다른 것으로 나타나 비대칭성을 가지는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 국가 간 무역수지의 분석에는 유가 변동의 비대칭성이 반영되어야함을 알 수 있었다. 무역수지와 유가 간의 비대칭성은 장기적인 현상보다는 단기적으로 나타나는 현상임을 알 수 있었다. 환율의 등락이 무역수지에 미치는 영향 역시 비대칭적인 것으로 나타나 무역수지의 분석에 있어 환율의 비대칭성 또한 고려되어야함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study estimates the relationship between bilateral trade and its determinants, and examines the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade in the framework of bilateral trade data between Korea and each of her top 10 largest trading partners. To this end, this research uses both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, which are known as ARDL and NARDL. The results show that there is evidence that increases and decreases of oil prices indeed have asymmetric impacts on Korea’s trade with most of trading partners. In addition, we find that the asymmetric impacts of oil price change are mostly occurring in the short-run rather than in the long-run. This study also finds that there are asymmetric impacts of increases and decreases of exchange rate on Korea’s trade.
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