중국의 석유 수입과 국제원유가격 변동의 인과관계 분석
The Causal Relationship between Chinese Petroleum Import and International Crude Oil Prices
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2000년부터 최근까지의 급격한 국제원유가격 상승의 주 원인이 중국과 인도의 급격한 경제성장에 의한 석유 수요의 급증이라는 주장이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 가설을 검정하기 위해 중국의 석유 수입과 국제원유가격 변동의 인과관계를 통계적으로 분석하였다. 인과관계를 분석하기 위하여 AIC값을 이용하여 최적 시차를 선정하고 벡터자기회귀모형과 벡터오차수정모형을 이용한 Granger 인과관계 검정 방법론을 사용하였다. 분석 결과 중국의 석유 수입이 국제원유가격 변동을 Granger 인과하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 중국의 석유 수입과 국제원유가격 변동에 대한 인과관계와 국제원유시장의 지역화에 대하여 논의하였다.
Abstract
We assumed that it is not the petroleum inventory of U.S. or production volumn of OPEC but the Chinese petroleum import, which threats the balance between oil production and supply, that rapidly increases international crude oil spot prices since 2000. In this paper, we analyzed the causal relationship between Chinese petroleum import and crude oil prices to support that assumption. To analyze the causal relationship, we conduct Granger casuality test based on vector autoregressive model and vector error correction model. The results indicate that Granger casuality from Chinese petroleum import to crude oil prices exists. On the results, we discussed the causal relationship and regionalization of crude oil markets.
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