중국경제 불확실성의 미국경제에의 영향 연구
Analysis of the Impact of Chinese Economic Uncertainty on the US macroeconomics
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China, which has the world's second largest economy, can reform its economic structure and system, transform its existing economic engine, and upgrade its industry with the basic premise of international stability. In order to carry out major economic reforms while maintaining the basic economic growth rate that the large-scale economy can accommodate, international stability is absolutely necessary. However, the US began to check this growth in China, and announced various sanctions on the Chinese economy accordingly. Such actions by the United States are playing a role in greatly increasing uncertainty in the Chinese economy. Increased economic uncertainty in a country negatively affects the economic growth of that country through various channels. In fact, after the US greatly increased the uncertainty of the Chinese economy through trade friction, both the real economy and the financial economy suffered serious damage. However, the Chinese economy is already the second-largest in the world and has a close relationship with the world economy, especially the US economy. The Chinese economy will naturally be negatively affected by the increased uncertainty. Also, it is conceivable that the US economy will not be able to avoid its impact as well. Therefore, the goal of this study is to examine how the expansion of uncertainty in the Chinese economy affects US macroeconomics through empirical analysis. If the expansion of uncertainty in the Chinese economy leads to significant and clear negative consequences for the US economy, the US sanctions and uncertainty-increasing strategy on the Chinese economy should be revised or proceed carefully considering that the decoupling of the Chinese and US economies is not yet complete.
Abstract
China, which has the world's second largest economy, can reform its economic structure and system, transform its existing economic engine, and upgrade its industry with the basic premise of international stability. In order to carry out major economic reforms while maintaining the basic economic growth rate that the large-scale economy can accommodate, international stability is absolutely necessary. However, the US began to check this growth in China, and announced various sanctions on the Chinese economy accordingly. Such actions by the United States are playing a role in greatly increasing uncertainty in the Chinese economy. Increased economic uncertainty in a country negatively affects the economic growth of that country through various channels. In fact, after the US greatly increased the uncertainty of the Chinese economy through trade friction, both the real economy and the financial economy suffered serious damage. However, the Chinese economy is already the second-largest in the world and has a close relationship with the world economy, especially the US economy. The Chinese economy will naturally be negatively affected by the increased uncertainty. Also, it is conceivable that the US economy will not be able to avoid its impact as well. Therefore, the goal of this study is to examine how the expansion of uncertainty in the Chinese economy affects US macroeconomics through empirical analysis. If the expansion of uncertainty in the Chinese economy leads to significant and clear negative consequences for the US economy, the US sanctions and uncertainty-increasing strategy on the Chinese economy should be revised or proceed carefully considering that the decoupling of the Chinese and US economies is not yet complete.
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