중국 지정학적 위험이 중국 실물경제에 미치는 영향연구
The Study on the Impact of Chinese Geopolitical Risks on the Chinese Real Economy
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초록
본 연구에서는 중국 지정학적 위험(Geopolitical Risk)지수의 중국 실물경제에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. 이미 다양한 방법으로 측정한 “경제불확실성(Economic Uncertainty)” 경제에 대한 영향연구가 존재하지만, 지정학적 위험은 이들과 달리 경제 전반상황(Economic Conditions)과 별도의 독립적인 정보를 통하여 경제에 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 특히 중국과 같이 양적성장을 통해 경제규모가 크고, 세계경제와 밀접한 관계를 가지면서도, 경제구조가 취약한 경우, 경제 전반상황과 별도로 지정학적 위험의 충격에 실물경제가 직접적으로 부정적 영향을 받게 될 것이라는 가설을 검증하였다. 실험에 의하면, 미국의 지정학적 위험의 영향을 제거한 중국의 지정학적 위험은 충격반응 분석 결과 투자, 생산, 소비 등에 대해서 통계적으로 매우 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 주었으며, 무역에 대해서는 통계적으로 유의하지는 않지만, 음(-)의 방향으로 반응하는 실증분석 결과가 도출되었다. 이를 통해서 중국은 지정학적 위험이 경제 전반상황과는 별개로 실물경제가 부정적 영향을 받는다는 것을 확인하였다.
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the impact on the Chinese real economy using the Geopolitical Risk Index measured by Caldara & Iacoviello (2022). While there exists extensive research on the effects of 'Economic Uncertainty' on the economy using various methodologies, geopolitical risk provides unique, independent information from general economic conditions. This is particularly significant for a country like China, where despite substantial quantitative growth and close ties with the global economy, the economic structure remains vulnerable. Our hypothesis, that the real economy can be negatively impacted by geopolitical risk independently from economic conditions, was tested. Notably, a significant portion of China's geopolitical risk is influenced by the United States, resulting in a high correlation with U.S. geopolitical risk. Through statistical treatment, we constructed an index of Chinese geopolitical risk that excludes U.S. influences and conducted an 'Impulse Response' analysis on real economic variables. The results indicate that, after removing the influence of U.S. geopolitical risk, China's geopolitical risk significantly negatively affects investment, production, and consumption, though its impact on trade was not statistically significant but still negatively oriented. These findings confirm that China's real economy can be adversely affected by geopolitical risk, independently of overall economic conditions, suggesting that countries affected by China's real economy should pay close attention to changes in geopolitical risk.
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