일반균형모형을 통한 한ㆍ일간 무역과 환경-무역정책의 분석- 국내 산업 배출오염 이전을 중심으로
The Analysis of Trade and Environmental Policy in the Trade Between Korea and Japan Using CGE Model
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본 논문은 한ㆍ일간의 무역을 통한 산업별 배출오염의 이전실태와 환경-무역정책의효과를 일반균형 모형을 통하여 분석하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 무역자유화를 통한 경제성장은 무역에 체화된 배출오염이 교역상대국 일본으로부터 한국으로 유의하게 이전되었다. 둘째, 비록 무역자유화가 소득을 증대시킬지라도 오염의 배출수준을 확대시킨다. 현재의 기술수준이 주어진 경우, 관세인하로 무역자유화를 통한 경제성장은 국민의 건강에 해로운 산업의 배출수준과 오염집약도를 증가시킨다. 셋째, 성장과 환경 사이에 역의 상관관계에 비추어 수출세, 부문마다 상이한 배출세, 단일의 배출세 등을 포함한 다양한 수단으로 오염을 감소시키는 상대적인 비용을 계산하였다. 또한 관세의 철폐와 단일조세의 결합으로 국내배출량을 낮추고 후생을 증가시킬 수 있는 방법을 모의실험하였다. 모의실험 결과 단일의 배출세가 SO2 배출량을 저감시키는 데 가장 비용이 적게 드는 수단으로 나타났다. 이들 수단을 사용한 오염저감은실질 GDP를 감소시킨다. 단일의 조세와 무역자유화조치를 동시에 취하였을 경우 실질GDP가 증가되거나 그대로 유지되면서 산업의 오염량을 저감시킬 수 있다는 것이다. 따라서 수출세의 부과나 부문간에 상이한 특정 배출세는 대체정책으로 고려될 수 없다. 이들 수단을 사용한 오염저감은 단일배출세를 사용한 동일한 목표의 달성보다 더 크게 실질 GDP를 감소시킨다. 넷째, 단일세가 무역자유화(관세의 철폐)와 결합될 때, 산출량의 수준을 유지시키거나 증가시키면서 오염수준을 저감시킬 수 있다. 현존하는 기술수준에서 국내 공해수준과 오염집약도를 감소시키기 위한 노력이 병행되어야 한다. 이것은 수입관세 또는 배출세를 포함하여 국내산출량의 구성을 변화시키는 경제적 수단으로 달성될 수 있다. 이와같은 배출세는 실질 GDP를 감소시킨다. 소비활동으로부터 발생하는 공해도 고려하여야한다.
Abstract
The ability of international trade to alter the composition of domestic production activities allows it to exert an important influence on the environment. Trade liberalization growth has often been associated with high and unsustainable pollution levels, and countries on this path of development are increasingly aware of the environmental risks. This paper uses data on the economy of Korea to appraise the environmental risks of its trade orientation and to evaluate some alternative economic instruments for reducing these risks. Three principal conclusions emerge from this preliminary research, two rather negative and one positive. First, Korea's historical trade orientation has been environmentally asymmetric in the sense that is occasioned significant transfers of pollution services from its trading partners of Japan to the Korea's economy. Secondly, trade liberalization by Korea is likely to raise both the levels and intensities of major industrial effluents, posing an ever more serious threat to public health. Other things being equal, these effects would be intensified by across-the-board Korean tariff reductions. Third, there is considerable scope within the economy for reducing both the level and intensity of domestic pollution under existing technologies. This can apparently be achieved by economic instrument which change the composition of domestic output, including important tariffs and effluent taxes. Such taxes may lead to reductions in real output, but by significantly smaller percentages than the pollution reductions. We have assessed the relative cost of curtailing pollution with a variety of instruments, including export taxes, specific effluent taxes, and uniform effluent taxes. A combination of uniform tax and tariff removal is simulated to examine the possibility of lowering domestic emissions and raising material welfare simultaneously. Our simulation results indicate that a uniform effluent tax is the most cost effective instrument in abating SO2 emissions. Our results shows that it is possible to abate industrial pollution while maintaining or increasing real output when uniform taxation is combined with trade liberalization. Trade liberalization should not be discouraged because of its environmental effects.
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