환율변동성이 아시아태평양 국가들간의 무역에 미치는 영향
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries
1
조회
0
다운로드
14
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper analyzes the household's off-farm labor response to risk using the Research Center on the Rural Economy (RCRE) panel data in China. This paper aims to find out whether the off-farm labor market, especially the migrant labor market, could be used as a means of coping with risk and shocks to income by poor households in rural China who have only limited access to the credit and insurance markets for managing risk. Instead of using the endogenous transitory income variance under the short time span of the data, we suggest using relatively exogenous measure of risk, such as the coefficient of variation of rainfall in each village, might be more appropriate to find the effect of risk on household's off-farm labor participation decision. Our results support the idea that households facing a riskier or more volatile distribution of precipitation are more likely to participate in the off-farm labor market. Attention to the potential risk-coping benefits from off-farm employment is timely for Chinese policy makers because both local and national policies accommodating the growth of markets for off-farm migrant labor have come under increasing pressure. As cities face growing problems of unemployed workers from state- owned enterprises, both local and national governments have taken measures to reduce competition for jobs between rural laborers and those urban residents left unemployed during the state-owned enterprises reform period. This paper suggests that rural resident would suffer from urban policies restricting the in-flow of migrants in two ways. Households sending temporary migrants to cities will suffer both a loss of income, and a loss of means of coping with risk. In fact, the analysis of this paper suggests that the welfare of Chinese farm households in rural areas can be further improved by eliminating the remaining institutional obstacles to expansion of migrant employment opportunities.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the household's off-farm labor response to risk using the Research Center on the Rural Economy (RCRE) panel data in China. This paper aims to find out whether the off-farm labor market, especially the migrant labor market, could be used as a means of coping with risk and shocks to income by poor households in rural China who have only limited access to the credit and insurance markets for managing risk. Instead of using the endogenous transitory income variance under the short time span of the data, we suggest using relatively exogenous measure of risk, such as the coefficient of variation of rainfall in each village, might be more appropriate to find the effect of risk on household's off-farm labor participation decision. Our results support the idea that households facing a riskier or more volatile distribution of precipitation are more likely to participate in the off-farm labor market. Attention to the potential risk-coping benefits from off-farm employment is timely for Chinese policy makers because both local and national policies accommodating the growth of markets for off-farm migrant labor have come under increasing pressure. As cities face growing problems of unemployed workers from state- owned enterprises, both local and national governments have taken measures to reduce competition for jobs between rural laborers and those urban residents left unemployed during the state-owned enterprises reform period. This paper suggests that rural resident would suffer from urban policies restricting the in-flow of migrants in two ways. Households sending temporary migrants to cities will suffer both a loss of income, and a loss of means of coping with risk. In fact, the analysis of this paper suggests that the welfare of Chinese farm households in rural areas can be further improved by eliminating the remaining institutional obstacles to expansion of migrant employment opportunities.
참고문헌 (29)
- "Effects of exchange rate uncertainty on German and U.S. trade", 9, pp.7~16 (1984)
- "Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC's", 18(1), pp.10~17 (2000)
- "Exchange-rate volatility, exchabge-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)", 72, pp.87~94 (2001)
- "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports", pp.173~177 (1991)
- "Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the U.S. International Development Series", International University of Japan
- "Does exchange-rate stability increase trade and welfare?", 90(5), pp.1093~1109 (2000)
- "Does exchange rate volatility deter trade volume of LDCs? Journal of Economic Development", Mohsen and Sayeed Payesteh
- "Exchange rate effects on the volume of trade flows: an empirical analysis employing high-frequency data" (2001), Manuscript
- "An empirical analysis of short-run and long-run Irish export functions: does exchange rate volatility matter?", 17(2), pp.193~208 (2003)
- "Does exchange rate volatility depress trade flows? Evidence from error-correction models The Review of Economics and Statistics", pp.700~706 (1993)
- "Bank of Canada" (1994)
- "Exchange rate fluctuations and trade flows, evidence from the European Union", (46), pp.315~331 (1999)
- "Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth of international trade", pp.63~84 (1988)
- "Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports evidence from Asian countries", 9, pp.859~863 (2002)
- "Does exchange rate volatility deter international trade in developing countries?", 10, pp.465~474 (1999)
- "Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade", 33, pp.249~265 (2001)
- "The role of history in bilateral trade flows", 5565 (1996)
- "Yen bloc or dollar bloc? Exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies NBER-East Asia seminar on economics National Bureau of Economic Research", macroeco 3(mic linkage) (1994)
- "Real exchange rate volatility and the Malaysian exports to its major trading partners" (2000), University Putra Malaysia
- "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade Journal of International Economics", pp.483~511 (1978)
- "The impact of Korea's exchange rate volatility on Korean trade", 10, pp.45~60 (1996)
- "The optimal currency basket and the currency bloc in Asia", pp.194~216 (2001)
- "The possibility of forming a yen bloc revisited", 17(2), pp.218~232 (2000)
- "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade Journal of International Money and Finance", pp.298~318 (1993)
- "Currency basket regimes for Southeast Asia the worst system with exception of all others", (0028) (2000), Adelaide University
- "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?", 25(1), pp.137~163 (2002)
- "One money, one market: estimating the effect of common currencies on trade", (7432) (1999)
- "Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade, Capital Flows under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes" (2000), Cambridge University Press
- "The case for a common basket peg for East Asian currencies" (1999), Routledge Press