중국 농촌 가계의 도시노동시장 참여결정에 관한 실증연구
Rural-urban Migration Decisions in China: Evidence from Rural Household Panel Data
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본 연구에서는 中國 農業部 農村經濟硏究中心(Research Center for Rural Economy)에서 매년 작성하고 있는 농촌 가계패널자료를 이용하여 중국 농촌 가계의 노동시장(off-farm labor market) 참여결정요인을 분석하고 있다. 일반적으로 개발도상국 농촌가계의 경우 위험에 대비할 수 있는 보험시장 등과 같은 시장메커니즘이나 대비수단이 제대로 형성되지 못한 상황에서 노동시장, 특히 도시노동시장은 가계가 직면하는 소득과 산출물 변동과 같은 위험 대비를 위한 주요 수단으로 이용되고 있음을 본 실증분석을 통해 확인할 수 있다. 본고에서는 특히 불확실성에 대비한 중국 가계의 경제행태를 분석한 Jalan & Ravallion(2001)의 연구가 이론모형의 예측과 상이한 결과를 제시하고 있음에 주목하고 이들 연구에 있어 소득위험의 대용변수로 사용된 가계소득의 표본분산 변수의 내생성 및 상대적으로 짧은 시계열로 인해 발생하는 편의문제의 심각성을 지적하였다. 이와 같은 분석을 토대로 농촌가계가 직면하는 위험에 대한 상대적으로 보다 외생적인 대용변수로서 강수량의 변동계수(강수량의 표준편차를 표본평균으로 나눈 값)를 추정하여 사용할 것을 제안하였으며 4개성 44개 촌의 각기 상이한 강수량의 변동계수를 가계가 직면하는 외생적인 위험의 대용변수로 사용하여 얻어진 본 실증분석 결과는 도시노동시장이 농촌가계의 주요한 위험대비수단으로 활용된다고 하는 이론모형의 예측을 실증적으로 뒷받침하고 있다. 최근 중국의 농촌노동력의 도시이주문제가 도시지역의 실업증가로 인해 정책당국의 주요 이슈임을 감안할 때 도시노동시장 참여로부터 발생하는 농촌 가계의 편익을 강조하는 본 연구결과는 정책당국자에게 시의성 있는 결과를 제공해 준다고 할 수 있다. 본 분석에서는 농촌유입인구를 억제하는 노동정책으로 인해 농촌가계는 소득의 손실은 물론 위험에 대비할 수단마저도 잃게 하는 결과를 가져오게 됨을 시사하고 있으며 따라서 도시노동시장 참여를 가로막는 제도상의 장애를 줄여주는 정부의 노동정책은 별다른 위험대비수단이 없는 가난한 중국 농촌 가계의 후생을 증진시키는 결과를 가져온다는 점을 강조하고 있다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the household's off-farm labor response to risk using the Research Center on the Rural Economy (RCRE) panel data in China. This paper aims to find out whether the off-farm labor market, especially the migrant labor market, could be used as a means of coping with risk and shocks to income by poor households in rural China who have only limited access to the credit and insurance markets for managing risk. Instead of using the endogenous transitory income variance under the short time span of the data, wesuggest using relatively exogenous measure of risk, such as the coefficient of variation of rainfall in each village, might be more appropriate to find the effect of risk on household's off-farm labor participation decision. Our results support the idea that households facing a riskier or more volatile distribution of precipitation are more likely to participate in the off-farm labor market. Attention to the potential risk-coping benefits from off-farm employment is timely for Chinese policy makers because both local and national policies accommodating the growth of markets for off-farm migrant labor have come under increasing pressure. As cities face growing problems of unemployed workers from state- owned enterprises, both local and national governments have taken measures to reduce competition for jobs between rural laborers and those urban residents left unemployed during the state-owned enterprises reform period. This paper suggests that rural resident would suffer from urban policies restricting the in-flow of migrants in two ways. Households sending temporary migrants to cities will suffer both a loss of income, and a loss of means of coping with risk. In fact, the analysis of this paper suggests that the welfare of Chinese farm households in rural areas can be further improved by eliminating the remaining institutional obstacles to expansion of migrant employment opportunities.
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