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동아시아 통화협력의 과제와 전망

Monetary Coopertation in East Asia: Major Issues and Future Prospects

유재원|Yunjong Wang
대외경제정책연구원 (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP))|2004.06|East Asian Economic Review|제8권 제1호|pp. 3-33|DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2004.8.1.113

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키워드

동아시아East Asiaoptimum currency area최적통화지역통화통합currency union통화협력monetary cooperation
주제분류경제학

초록

1997년 발생한 아시아 외환위기와 1999년 유로화의 출범으로 동아시아에서 지역통화통합이 가능한가 또는 바람직한가에 대한 논란과 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 아직도 기존연구의 실증결과나 정책제안만으로는 위 문제에 대하여 명확한 해답을 제시하기에 역부족이다. 동아시아경제의 구조적 특성을 고려하여 통화협력의 인센티브, 협력의 틀과 원칙, 그리고 이를 실현할 정책수단 등에 대하여 신뢰할 만한 제안을 도출하려면 좀더 많은 이론적 연구와 실증분석이 이루어져야 할 것이다. 본고는 동아시아의 통화협력에 있어서 중요한 개념적 문제를 정리하고 기존의 연구성과를 검토함으로써 추후 연구방향을 제시하는 데 초점을 맞추었다. 본고는 먼저 통화협력의 개념과 환율제도 선택문제와의 연관성, 동아시아지역에서의 필요성 및 정당성을 면밀히 검토한 후, 동아시아가 단일통화지역인가와 지역통화제도로서 고려할 수 있는 대안에는 무엇이 있는가라는 문제를 집중적으로 논의하고 있다. 사실 동아시아국가들 사이에는 어떠한 통화협력의 경험도 없기 때문에, 본고의 논의수준은 가상적 예측을 넘지 못한다고도 할 수 있다. 그러나 최근 동아시아에서 활발하게 진행되고 있는 자연적 경제통합은 동아시아가 50년 전 유럽이 직면하였던 경제 및 통화통합의 출발점에 놓여 있을지도 모른다는 것을 시사한다. 내생적인 최적통화지역이론이 주장하듯, 무역을 통한 지역경제통합이 가속화되고 경기순환의 동조성이 강해질수록 역내통화통합의 이득은 증가할 것이다. 본고는 통화통합은 금융협력 및 자유무역지대형성과 함께 장기적으로 반드시 필요한 협력과제이며, 지역경제통합이 가속화될수록 그 중요성이 커질 것이라고 주장하고 있다. 동아시아국가들은 장기적인 통화통합을 뒷받침할 수 있도록 제도적 기반을 마련하는 데 노력을 경주하여야 할 것이다.

Abstract

The Asian currency crisis in 1997 and the launch of the euro in 1999 made the possibility and desirability of introducing a regional currency union in East Asia a point of debate. At present, the empirical findings and policy implications of previous studies are mixed. We are still in need of theoretical and empirical studies that capture the salient features of East Asia, and give us reliable recommendations for incentive structures, configurations and policy instruments in monetary cooperation in its various stages. This paper aims to review major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to monetary cooperation in East Asia, including proposals for a regional cooperative framework for exchange rate stability or forming a currency union in the region. East Asian countries have no experience with any type of monetary cooperation and all we have are hypothetical predictions. Nevertheless, East Asian countries may be on the brink of an historical evolution to economic and monetary integration, as Europe was half a century ago. The progressive integration of markets in East Asia has conferred a commonality of economic interest upon the countries in the region. As the economic structures of East Asian countries converge with one another through closer ties of trade, investment and finance, the necessity for monetary cooperation will be more likely to emerge in the future. Monetary cooperation in East Asia will be a long process. East Asian countries should make efforts to build collective institutions in the beginning.

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