동아시아 통화의 절상압력과 대안적 환율체제
The Problems and Alternatives of the Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia
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본 논문의 기본 목적은 2004년 하반기 원화절상압력을 계기로 다시 불거진 동아시아 환율체제의 문제점과 이를 극복하기 위한 대안모색의 기본방향을 타진하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 우선 외환･금융위기 이후 한국을 포함한 동아시아의 환율체제가 어떤 성격을 지니는지, 그리고 어떤 내재적인 모순을 안고 있는지를 살펴볼 것이다. 다음으로 이런 시각에서 2004년 하반기 본격화되고 있는 동아시아통화의 절상압력과 그것이 초래할 여러 가지 딜레마를 분석할 것이다. 끝으로 동아시아에서 달러본위제의 폐해를 시정하려면 어떤 대안적 환율체제를 지향해야 할지를 검토할 것이다.
Abstract
The key purpose of this paper is to analyse the problems of the exchange rate regimes in East Asia and to suggest the basic direction for addressing these problems. The basic point of view is that most East Asian countries are under the strong influence of dollar standard and dollar hegemony. Therefore, the focus of my research will be concentrated on the essential natures of the East Asian dollar standard. More specifically, the following problems will be explored. First, what are the crucial natures of the East Asia dollar standard? They have much to do with each country’s exchange rate against dollar, which is very fragile to yen-dollar rate. Second, what effects is it having on the macroeconomic stabilities in the East Asian countries? The accelerating appreciation trend in East Asia since 2003 is likely to cause a severe deflation effect. Finally, what are the alternative exchange rate regimes that can alleviate the defects of the East Asia dollar standard? The ultimate direction lies in facilitate an exchange rates cooperation in East Asia.
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