아시아 통화금융협력 촉진방안으로서의 지역통화단위(RCU) 도입
Asian Monetary and Financial Cooperation and Regional Currency Unit
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초록
본 연구는 동아시아 통화금융협력의 일환으로 제시되고 있는 지역통화단위(regional currency unit: RCU) 구상을 둘러싼 논의들을 살펴보고, 이를 활용해 동아시아 통화금융협력을 촉진할 수 있는 방안들을 제시하고자 한다. 구체적으로 RCU를 구성하고 계산할 때는 첫째, 기본적으로 각국의 통화가치가 잘 반영될 수 있도록 해야 하고, 둘째, RCU를 활용한 동아시아 통화금융협력 과정에서 역내 국가들간의 환율운용에 비대칭성 문제가 발생하지 않도록 해야 한다. 이러한 점들을 고려할 때, 각 통화의 가중치는 구매력을 반영한 GDP, 역내 무역, 역내 금융협력에 대한 기여 등을 반영해 설정하는 것이 바람직하다. 아울러 역외 경상수지 균형 및 역내 국가들 간의 경상수지 균형에 근접한 시점을 기준연도로 정하고, 환율변화에 따라 통화들 간의 가치변화가 반영될 수 있도록 그리고 특정통화의 비중이 지나치게 커지는 것을 방지할 수 있도록 통화단위를 정기적으로 조정해주는 것도 필요하다. 한편 RCU를 활용해 역내 통화금융협력을 촉진시키기 위해서는 우선 공적인 차원에서 RCU를 감시감독을 위한 일탈지수 혹은 역내 협력에서의 계정단위 등으로 이용하는 것이 필요하다. 이를 기초로 민간 차원에서도 RCU를 사용하고자 하는 유인을 높여야 할 것이며, 궁극적으로는 역내국가들 간 RCU를 중심으로 한 환율협력 체제로 발전시키는 것이 바람직하다.
Abstract
Regional currency unit(RCU) has been suggested as an idea to promote East Asian monetary and financial cooperation. The objective of this paper is to examine various technical issues surrounding RCU and to suggest how RCU can be used to enhance monetary and financial integration in East Asia. The most important considerations in the composition of RCU are: each currency's value should be properly reflected in RCU; and an asymmetry problem among member currencies should be resolved. Thus the weight assigned to each currency should reflect the country's GDP based on PPP, its size of intra-regional transaction and its contribution to CMIM. Also, the base year should be chosen so that in that year total international transactions of member countries are as close to balance as possible and their balances with the rest of the world are also as close to zero as possible. Also, to prevent a country's weight from being dominant and to avoid an asymmetry problem, we need to put an upper limit to the weight of strong currencies and periodically revise the weights of currencies included in RCU. If RCU is to play a pivotal role for monetary and financial integration in East Asia, it needs to be widely used for surveillance and for intra-regional transaction. For this purpose, what's needed the most is to use RCA as an indicator to monitor how individual currencies diverge inside the region and how Asian currencies are moving collectively vis-à-vis key external currencies such as the US dollar and the euro. At the same time, RCU can be used for transaction in private capital markets as a denomination of market transactions and as a useful instrument for the introduction of a regional settlement system to link regional financial markets. However, to strengthen the role of RCU, it would be desirable to create a regional exchange rate arrangement among East Asian countries.
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