자유주의 국제질서의 균열과 러시아의 주권적 국제주의
Weakening of the Liberal International Order and Russia's Sovereign Internationalism
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이 글은 ‘자유주의 국제질서(LIO)’의 약화를 배경으로 한 ‘미국 우선주의(America First)’ 정책의 의도, 기존 LIO에 대한 대안 모색이자 질서 이행기의 대응으로서 등장한 러시아의 주권적 국제주의의 입지와 위상을 검토하여 국제질서 이행기의 성격을 전망하는 데 목적이 있다. 트럼프의 ‘미국 우선주의’ 정책은 미국 대외전략사의 주요 흐름 중 하나인 ‘보수적 국제주의’의 전통적 지혜와 전략 문화를 계승한 전략적 기획의 소산일 가능성이 높다. LIO의 일방주의적 행태에 대응하여 2000년 대 중반 이후 러시아가 추구해온 질서 모델은 주권적 국제주의이다. 이것은 LIO의 기본 원칙과 핵심 규범들에 도전하는 것이 아니라, 그 적용, 운용 및 관리방식의 변화, LIO 내에서 더 큰 권위와 지도력, 자신에게 합당한 몫 등을 요구한다는 점에서, ‘충분히 성숙한’ 수정주의보다는 부분적 수정주의에 가깝다. 주권적 국제주의의 세계관과 접근방법은 BRICS, SCO 국가들 및 이란 등과 공유되고 있지만, 그것은 주로 정치와 안보 영역으로 국한되며, 국제 교역, 투자 및 금융 분야의 규범과 제도의 유지ㆍ보장자 역할은 여전히 LIO의 몫으로 남아 있다. 이처럼 LIO가 주된 역할을 수행하는 가운데, 주권적 국제주의, 중상주의적 국민주의, 보수적 국제주의 등 여러 대안적 질서 모델들이 경쟁하고 갈등하며 병존하는 이행기가 장기간 지속될 것으로 예상된다.
Abstract
This article is aimed at forecasting the nature of the transition period of the international order, examining the intention of the Trump's “America First” policy on the backdrop of weakening of the “liberal international order(LIO)” and the position and status of Russia's sovereign internationalism emerging as an alternative to LIO and as a response to the transition period. Trump's “America First” policy is likely to be the product of strategic planning that inherits the traditional wisdom and strategic culture of “conservative internationalism,” one of the major trends in the history of US foreign strategy. The model of order that Russia has pursued as a response to the unilateral behaviors of the LIO is sovereign internationalism. It is closer to a partial revisionism rather than a “full-fledged” one in that it does not challenge the basic principles and core norms of the LIO, but insists on changing the way of its application and practice, claiming greater authority, leadership, and its share within LIO. The worldview and approach of sovereign internationalism are shared with BRICS, SCO countries, Iran and others. However, it is mainly limited to the spheres of international politics and security, and the role maintaining the norms and institutions in international trade, investment, and finance remains to be the share of the LIO. With this LIO playing a major role, it is expected that the transition period in which the alternative models of international order such as sovereign internationalism, mercantilist nationalism, and conservative internationalism would compete, conflict and coexist might be continued for a long time.
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