2기 트럼프 정부에 대한 러시아의 시각: 다극질서 인정, 보수 가치･기독교 국가주의를 중심으로

Abstract

The second Trump administration’s recognition of multipolarity and its emphasis on conservative values and Christian nationalism exhibit an unusually high degree of overlap with the ideological trajectory pursued by the Putin government. This study examines the policy and perceptual convergences and divergences between the two governments and analyzes their strategic implications for U.S.– Russia relations. The Trump administration’s “America First” orientation prioritizes strengthening U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere—a shift Russia views as conducive to stabilizing its own sphere of influence and advancing its long-standing pursuit of a multipolar order. The expansion of conservative and Christian-nationalist discourse within the MAGA movement has also contributed to increasingly favorable perceptions of Russia among segments of the American conservative base. However, it remains uncertain whether these value-based intersections will translate into meaningful structural change in bilateral relations. Questions also persist regarding the Trump administration’s ability to consistently implement MAGA-oriented foreign policy within the constraints of the U.S. decision-making system. While recognizing these limitations, Russia appears to regard the rise of American conservative movements as a potential strategic opportunity. Given that deteriorating U.S.–Russia relations have historically constrained the Republic of Korea’s strategic space, potential improvements in the bilateral relationship could reshape the strategic environment on the Korean Peninsula and create more favorable conditions for the Republic of Korea to pursue a pragmatic, interest-based foreign policy.