중국의 부상과 국제통화ㆍ금융질서의 미래: 자유주의 국제질서가 붕괴될 것인가?
Rising China and the Future of International Monetary and Financial Order: Will the Liberal International Order Crumble?
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중국의 부상이 자유주의 국제질서를 붕괴시킬 것이라는 주장은 미국의 패권이 쇠퇴하고 중국이 비자유주의 국가라는 사실에 기초한다. 그러나 이는 논리적이고 경험적인 검증을 필요로 한다. 이 글은 국제통화․금융질서의 측면에서 세 가지 사례를 통해 중국의 부상이 국제질서에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 첫째, IMF에 대한 중국의 영향력 증대이다. 세계금융위기 이후 중국은 국제통화체제 개혁을 적극 요구하였고, 그 결과 IMF에서 세 번째로 비중이 큰 이해당사자가 되었다. 중국의 국력신장이 IMF의 거버넌스 개혁에 반영된 결과이다. 둘째, 중국은 위안화 국제화를 위해 SDR 바스켓에 위안화를 편입시키려 했다. 국내적으로 금융개혁을 추진하고 국제적으로 사용이 용이하도록 하는 등 다양한 노력의 결과, 위안화는 SDR 바스켓을 구성하는 5개 통화들 중 하나가 되었으며 국제통화로서 인증받았다. 셋째, AIIB를 설립하여 중국 중심의 국제금융기구를 갖게 되었다. 중국은 막대한 금융자산을 기초로 적극적인 금융외교를 펼치고 있다. AIIB는 쌍무적․비공식적인 중국의 금융외교를 다자화․제도화하려는 노력으로서, 세계은행이나 ADB를 대체하기보다 경쟁하고 보완하는 역할을 한다. 이러한 사례들에서 중국의 부상은 자유주의 국제질서를 붕괴시키기보다 그 질서 속으로 중국이 더욱 깊숙이 편입되고 있음을 확인할 수 있다. 국제경제질서는 부상하는 국가들을 비교적 쉽게 포용할 수 있다. 국제통화․금융의 측면에서 중국의 부상은 자유주의 국제질서를 위태롭게 만들지 않고 있다.
Abstract
It is often argued that China’s rise will bring about the collapse of the liberal international order. This is based on two features of China’s rise: the relative decline of U.S. hegemony and China’s being an illiberal country. However, this argument needs to be examined with regard to its logical reasoning and empirical foundation. We cannot tell logically that the decline of a liberal hegemonic country, the U.S., will necessarily end up with the collapse of the liberal international order. In this paper we take three instances exemplifying China’s rise in the field of international monetary and financial relations to examine their impacts on the liberal international order. First, the reform of the IMF and China’s rising power in it. After the global financial crisis China strongly argued for the IMF reform as a part of international monetary reform which caused the crisis, and now is the third most powerful state in the IMF in terms of its quota share and voting power. Second, China demanded that its currency, RMB, should be included in the currency basket of Special Drawing Rights(SDR). China made a variety of efforts to satisfy the criteria for the RMB inclusion into the SDR basket, and RMB is now an officially recognized international reserve currency. Third, China led an international effort to establish an international infrastructure investment bank and succeeded in launching the AIIB. AIIB can be perceived as China’s effort to transform its conventional bilateral and informal financial diplomacy towards a multilateral and institutionalized one. These instances show that rising China has been successfully accommodated into the liberal international order, rendering China to be its big stakeholder. As far as international monetary and financial relations are concerned, the liberal order has shown its flexibility and adaptability to accommodate a rising great power into it.
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