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중국의 위안화 국제화와 탈-달러화 도전의 전개

China’s Renminbi Internationalization andDe-Dollarization Challenge

정수현
아태지역연구센터 (The Asia-Pacific Research Center)|2022.11|중소연구|제46권 제3호|pp. 7-43|DOI 10.21196/aprc.46.3.202211.001

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키워드

SWIFTCBDC탈달러화달러의 무기화위안화 Weaponization of the dollarCIPSPetro yuanInternational financial order국제화국제금융질서페트로 위안화Weaponization of the dollarInternational financial order

초록

중국의 위안화 국제화의 국가전략은 ‘어떻게’ 또 ‘왜’ 탈-달러화(de-dollarization) 도전으로 진화해 왔는가? 본고는 2008년 세계금융위기 이후 미국 주도의 국제금융(제재)질서에 반대하는 세력 규합의 지정학적 요인과 금융기술 인프라 혁신 요인이 중국의 위안화 국제화의 탈-달러화 도전으로의 추세를 강화해 왔다고 주장한다. 중국은 달러의 ‘무기화’에 대응하여 한편으로는 미국의 주요 제재대상국인 러시아 등과 연합을 구축하고, 다른 한편으로는 새로운 금융기술 인프라를 적극적으로 활용함으로써 달러를 대체하는 위안화 수요에 새로운 점증하는 공간을 창출해 올 수 있었다. 본고는 중국의 탈-달러화 도전의 전개를 미국이 점유하는 SWIFT 국제결제시스템을 우회하는 위안화 국제결제시스템(CIPS)의 발전, 달러화의 원유 선물거래 독점을 와해하는 ‘페트로 위안화’의 추진, 중앙은행이 발행하는 디지털 화폐(CBDC)의 발전의 세 가지 현상을 중심으로 검토한다.

Abstract

How and why did China’s statecraft regarding renminbi inter- nationalization evolve into a de-dollarization challenge? This paper argues that since the 2008 global financial crisis, geopolitical factors in opposition to the U.S.-led international financial order along with innovation in financial technology infrastructure have strengthened China's efforts toward renminbi internationalization as part of a larger de-dollarization objective. In response to the “weaponization” of the dollar, China has been attempting to create a space in global markets for the renminbi to offset the power of the U.S. dollar by building a coalition among major countries targeted by U.S. sanctions such as Russia. These efforts are being supplemented by the active utilization of new financial technology infrastructure. This paper examines the development of China's de-dollarization challenge, focusing on the renminbi’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to bypass the U.S.-dominated SWIFT international settlement system, the promotion of the “petro yuan” to break the dollar’s monopoly on crude oil transactions, as well as the launch of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

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