중국의 인민폐와 주요 국가의 통화 국제화 비교 및 함의
A Comparative Approach and Implication on the Internationalization of the Currency of China and the Major Countries
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초록
중국은 경제와 무역규모가 급속하게 성장하면서 세계경제에서 차지하는 위상도 상승했다. 미국경제와 함께 G2가 된 중국은 2008년 미국 발 금융위기로 인한 달러화의 위상 하락을 계기로 인민폐의 국제화를 본격적으로 추진하고 있다. 본 논문은 과거 국제통화체제 하에서 주요 국가의 통화가 국제적으로 통용되었던 사례들을 정리했다. 특히 영국의 파운드화, 미국의 달러화의 국제통화로서의 역할 변화에 주목하였으며, 비교적 최근 사례인 일본 엔화의 국제화와 유럽통합 이후 유로화의 출범에 대한 사례도 추가했다. 주요국들의 통화가 국제화된 과거 사례들과 비교하면, 중국정부의 적극적인 국제화 추진에도 불구하고 인민폐의 국제화 수준은 경제규모, 무역규모, 통화가치 안정, 국제금융센터 등 4가지 조건에서 아직 미흡한 수준으로 판단된다. 본 논문은 인민폐가 글로벌 기축통화의 위상에 접근하려면, 첫째, 안정적인 경제성장 지속, 둘째, 글로벌 무역확대 주도, 셋째, 환율제도 개혁과 통화가치 안정, 마지막으로 상하이 등을 명실상부한 국제금융센터로 육성하기 위한 금융시장의 추가 개방과 개혁정책이 필요하다고 강조했다.
Abstract
The rapid growth of the Chinese economy and trade volume has also led to an increase in the share of the global economy. China, which has become the G2 along with the U.S. economy, is pushing for the inter-nationalization of RMB in earnest in the wake of the U.S.-sparked financial crisis in 2008. This paper analyzed examples of international currency usage of major countries under the international monetary system in the past. In particular, this paper noted the change in the role of the British pound and the US dollar in the international monetary system, and the case of the relatively recent internationalization of the Japanese yen and the launch of the euro after European integration was added to the analysis. When referring to past cases in which the currencies of representative major countries have been internationalized, it is judged that the People’s Republic of China’s RMB is a little short of the four necessary filling conditions: economic scale, trade scale, currency value stability, and the presence of the international finance center. In order for Chinese RMB to raise its status as the international currency, it is essential to foster the People’s Republic of China as an international financial center and globalization of domestic financial market, sustainable growth of its economy, expansion of trade through opening up, reform of its exchange rate system to maintain its value stability.
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