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동아시아 지역경제질서의 다차원화: 지정학과 지경학의 상호작용

Multilayering of Regional Economic Order in East Asia: Interaction between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

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주제분류정치외교학

초록

중국의 부상은 동아시아 지역질서의 지각 변동을 야기하고 있다. 중국의 부상이 본격화됨에 따라, 동아시아 지역통합을 둘러싼 갈등과 협력의 양상이 21세기 지역아키텍처를 재편시키는 결과를 초래하고 있다. 그 변화의 성격과 과정은 다른 지역 또는 과거와 비교하기 어려운 특수성을 띤다. 하드파워 측면에서 볼 때, 중국의 부상에 따른 세력전이가 동아시아 지역질서의 변화를 촉발한 1차적 요인이라고 볼 수 있으며, 이는 미국과 중국이 지역아키텍처를 재설계하는 과정에서 역내 갈등을 증폭시키는 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 높다. 한편, 전쟁을 통한 패권 경쟁의 결과로 글로벌 또는 지역아키텍처가 재편되었던 과거의 세력전이와 달리, 21세기 미국과 중국은 갈등 속에서도 직접적인 대결은 가능한 회피하는 가운데 제도를 통해 경쟁하는 특징을 보이고 있다. 미국과 중국을 포함한 동아시아 주요국들이 갈등과 협력의 이중 동학이라는 외견상 모순된 대외전략을 추구하는 것은 이 때문이다. 동아시아 국가 간 갈등과 협력의 이중 동학은 ‘지정학(geopolitics)’과 ‘지경학(geoeconomics)’의 복합적 상호작용이라는 관점에서 설명할 수 있다.

Abstract

The rise of China creates a fundamental change in the regional order in East Asia. The dynamics of conflict and cooperation unfolded in the process of regional economic integration, prompted by the rise of China, resulted in re-engineering of the regional architecture in the 21st century. The nature and process shows a unique characteristic that is hardly comparable to the past of the regional order. In terms of hard power, power transition facilitated by the rise of China is a dominant factor, causing renegotiation of the regional architecture. This dimension is likely to amplify regional conflicts. Meanwhile, in contrast to the power transition of the past in which the recreation of global and regional architecture was made by way of war, the U.S. and China tend to compete against each other by taking advantage of institutions, while avoiding direct confrontation. It is against this backdrop that major states in East Asia including the U.S. and China demonstrate a somewhat contradictory dual dynamics of conflict and cooperation. Complex interaction between geopolitics and geoeconomics is a driving force that spurs the dual dynamics.

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