양면게임으로 본 그리스의유로존 탈퇴(Grexit) 논란
Debate on the Exit of Greece from the Eurozone and analysis through Two-Level Game Theory
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초록
본 연구는 그리스 정부와 국제채권단 간의 협상을 양면게임을 통해 분석하였다. 좌파정당인 시리자는 긴축정책 철회를 공약으로 집권에 성공하였고, 이후 치프라스 총리는국내외 정치적 상황을 최대한 활용하여 유로존과의 재협상을 시도하였다. 치프라스 총리는 구제금융에 대한 국민투표를 제안하여 관철시키는 등 이른바, ‘발목잡히기 전략’과 ‘사안의 연계전략’을 통해 자신의 윈셋을 축소시키는데 중점을 두었다. 또한 유로존 각국의 좌파에게 호소하고, 국제채권단과의 협상을 투기자본주의의 압력에맞선 대응으로 이미지화함으로써 유로존의 윈셋을 확대시키고자 도모하였다. 반면에 유로존은 자신의 윈셋이 아닌, 그리스 정부의 윈셋을 확대시키는데 초점을 맞추었다. 그리스 경제위기는 국내 정치적 상황에 의해 유로존 차원의 결정이 좌지우지되는 경우를 보여주는 단적인 예이다. 유로존이 유럽통합과 관련된 현재의 위기를 극복해 내기위해서는 각국이 자국중심의 전략에서 벗어나 지금까지 이룬 통합의 성과를 공공재로인식, 이에 대한 보존에 우선순위를 두는 발상의 전환이 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the negotiation of the financial bail-out between Greek government and international creditors, termed ‘Troika (European Commission, IMF and ECB)’ on the basis of the two-level game theory. Syriza won the general election in January 2015 with its manifesto on anti-austerity and renegotiation on the bail-out conditions. Alex Tsipras became Prime Minister of Greek government and he tried to renegotiate the extension of the bail-out programme, taking full advantage of his political assets. Tsipras attempted to reduce his win-set by using strategies of ‘tying-hands’, while to enlarge the win-set of the Eurozone by relying on strategies of ‘targeting issue linkage’. He called referendum on bail-out terms and tried to appeal to left parties in Europe, describing his confrontation with Troika as a response to international speculators. On the other hand, Eurozone leaders tried to enlarge the win-set of the Greek government, rather than to reduce its own win-set. The Greek crisis is an example that an important decision at European level is mostly determined by a particular situation of national politics. In order that the EU overcome the current crisis related to the European integration, it will be necessary to consider what the EU has achieved so far, as ‘public goods’ and to put a priority on its preservation.
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