경제안보 패러다임에 따른 EU의 위험완화(de-risking) 전략: 미국의 대중국 정책과의 연결성과 향후 도전과제
The EU's De-risking Approach under the Economic Security Paradigm: its Relation with China Policy of the United States and Future Challenges
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초록
이 연구는 EU 집행위원회가 경제안보를 목적으로 제시한 위험완화(de-risking) 전략의 배경과 의미를 EU와 미국의 대중국 정책을 통해 분석했다. 위험완화는 EU 집행위원장에 의해 처음 언급된 후, 미국 최고위 관료의 호응을 받았고, G7 성명서에 대중국 정책의 기본 방향으로 명시되었다. EU가 제시한 위험완화 전략은 전략적 자율성의 기조하에 EU가 취해온 대중국 정책의 연장선에 있다. 이 연구를 통해 밝힌 점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미국이 제시한 대중국 위험완화는 외교․안보와 기술 등 보다 포괄적인 정책이지만, EU의 위험완화 전략은 경제안보에 위험을 초래하는 분야를 중심으로 대중국 관계를 섬세하게 재조정하는 것이다. 둘째, 미국과 EU가 제시하는 위험완화 전략이 다르며, 대중국 정책에도 차이가 있으므로 EU의 전략은 미국과 연대와 이견조정이라는 미묘한 관계 속에서 진행될 가능성이 크다. 셋째, EU가 표방해 온 ‘파트너-경쟁자-라이벌’의 다면적 대중국 정책은 점차 상호모순적 성격이 두드러질 가능성이 높다. 위험완화 전략에 대해 중국이 거부적인 반응을 보이는 상황에서 ‘경쟁자/라이벌’ 관계가 ‘파트너’ 관계를 잠식하는 상황이 발생하기 때문이다. 마지막으로 EU의 대중국 무역의존도는 정책 의지를 고려할 때 핵심 산업 분야에서는 감소하더라도, 범용산업 분야에서는 기존의 무역 관계가 계속될 것으로 예상된다. 이 연구가 한국의 경제안보 정책에 주는 시사점으로는 우선, 미국과 유럽의 위험완화 전략이 반드시 일치하지 않기 때문에 그 차이를 숙지할 필요가 있으며, 유사입장국으로서 공급망 재조정이 일어나는 분야의 기회요인을 포착할 필요가 있다. 또한, 주요국의 경제안보 조치가 국내 산업에 영향을 줄 경우 대외적 충격과 구조조정을 지원할 수 있는 조치를 마련할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
This study explores the 'de-risking' strategy announced by the European Commission (EC) within the context of economic security. Originating from the President of the European Commission and echoed by high-ranking US officials, the de-risking approach has also gained support in the conclusion of the G7 summit, resulting in a broader policy stance of the Western countries towards China. The EU's strategy focuses on enhancing the stability of supply chains by diminishing economic dependencies on China and diversifying supply chains, aligning with its principle of strategic autonomy. The study brings to light the following key points: firstly, the de-risking strategy of the US towards China, as articulated by US officials, encompasses broad areas such as diplomacy, security, and technology, whereas the EU's approach involves a nuanced recalibration, specifically addressing areas posing risks to economic security. Secondly, disparities emerge in the de-risking strategies proposed by the US and the EU due to distinct policy details concerning China, indicating potential cooperation and disagreement between two Atlantic partners. Thirdly, the EU's 'partner-competitor-rival' stance towards China is increasingly fraught with contradictions, as the 'competitor-rival' dynamic encroaches on the 'partner' relationship, eliciting strong negative reactions from China towards de-risking strategies by the US and Europe. Lastly, the EU's dependence on China is expected to diminish in core industries, aligning with policy objectives but persisting in general industries within the existing trade framework. The study suggests several implications for Korea's economic security. Firstly, a comprehensive understanding of nuanced differences in de-risking strategies between the US and Europe is essential, given the potential differences in detail. Secondly, it is crucial to evaluate the opportunistic factors in the field where supply chain realignment is occurring. Thirdly, in response to economic security initiatives by major countries affecting domestic industries, proactive measures should be discussed to mitigate the impact of external shocks and possibly facilitate possible industrial restructuring.
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