미·중 무역전쟁과 상호의존성의 무기화: 중국의 대두(大豆) 전략을 중심으로
Sino-U.S. Trade War and Weaponisation of Interdependence: Focusing on China’s Soybean Strategy
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초록
본 논문은 미중 무역전쟁 중 중국의 대두 활용 전략에 착안하여 대두가 중국의 외교적 보복 수단으로 사용될 수 있게 된 배경과 원인 분석에 목적을 둔다. 2018년 7월 본격화된 무역전쟁에서 미국은 전방위적인 추가 관세 부과와 더불어 중국 기업에 대한 제재 강화, 환율조작국 지정 등 다양한 수단을 통해 정치경제적 압력을 가한 반면, 중국은 주로 대두를 포함한 농산물 위주의 수입규제 전략을 통해 미국과의 협상에 임했다. 본 논문은 이러한 중국의 협상 전략을 미중 간 상호의존적 무역구조의 시각에서 분석하였다. 지난 20여 년간, 미중 간 대두 무역구조는 기존의 미국 우위의 비대칭적 상호의존(Asymmetric interdependence) 관계에서 중국 우위의 관계로 전환되었으며, 이는 세 측면의 변화에 기인한다. 첫째, 국제 무역구조의 변화로 글로벌 대두 시장이 구매자 시장으로 전환되어, 미국과 중국의 시장지배력이 역전되었다. 둘째, 중국의 해외 농업투자 및 M&A 전략으로 글로벌 대두 가치사슬에서 중국의 영향력이 확대되었다. 셋째, 중국 식량안보 정책의 추진으로 대두 자급률이 증가하고 국내 가공산업구조가 중국 기업 중심으로 개편되어, 미국 기업에 대한 의존도가 대폭 하락하였다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyse the background and reasons behind China’s utilisation of soybean as a retaliatory measure throughout the Sino-U.S. trade war. In July 2018, as the trade war began in earnest, U.S. and China put political and economic pressure on each other through various diplomatic means. While the U.S. utilised a variety of measures, including imposing additional tariffs on Chinese products, tightening sanctions on Chinese companies and designating China as a currency manipulator, China engaged in negotiations with the U.S. through a strategy focusing on agricultural products, especially soybeans. This paper analyses China’s negotiation strategy from the perspective of Sino-U.S. interdependent trade structure. A shift in the U.S. dominated asymmetric interdependence trade structure between U.S. and China can be attributed to three aspects. First, due to the change in the global trade structure, the global soybean market has been transformed into a buyer’s market, and it reversed the market dominance of the U.S. and China. Second, China’s influence in the global soybean value chain has been expanded with its overseas agricultural investment and M&A strategy. Third, China’s food security policy increased its soybean self-sufficiency rate, and the domestic soybean crushing industry structure was reorganised around domestic companies, which drastically reduced China’s dependence on U.S. companies.
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