미중 무역분쟁에 따른 농산물 수출입구조 변화와 후생 분석: 돼지고기와 대두를 중심으로

Abstract

The study analyzed changes of export and import structure after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork and soybean in 2018 as part of a U.S.-China trade dispute. As a result, China changed its import partner countries to Brazil and other countries, instead of significantly reducing imports of U.S. pork and soybean, and the U.S. expanded its export partner countries to South Korea, Egypt and other countries. So, it was presumed that Chinese consumers’ welfare was significantly reduced by consuming imported pork and soybeans at higher prices than before the retaliatory tariffs were imposed. And it was presumed that U.S. producers’ welfare was also reduced a lot due to decrease of soybean export and a fall in import unit price. The impact of the bilateral trade dispute also spreads to third countries. South Korea's import of U.S. pork and soybean have increased significantly since the U.S.-China trade dispute. It is hard to conclude that this is the impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute, but it is also difficult to completely rule out the possibility. In order to minimize the reduction of consumers and producers' benefits from the trade dispute, diversification of import and export partner countries and establishment of a transparent and fair trade order is paramount.